The new safeguard measure the EU proposes to implement in 2026 will be exclusively in the interest of steelmakers, and much to the disadvantage of steel users, says German consultant Andreas Schneider.
“The European Commission has adopted all steelmakers’ demands to an extent hardly seen before in the interest of one particular industry,” Schneider writes in his blog on Stahlmarkt Consult. According to his calculations, imports of flat products will be reduced by 8.5 million tonnes/year, equalling more than 10% of EU consumption.
It is clear that all EU mills will use these conditions to bring up their prices, Schneider states. “Steel buyers need to adjust their costs forecasts for 2026 notably upwards,” Kallanish reads in the blog. He cites an estimate from a European Commission document, which predicts a price increase of 3.25%, which he calls “very much understated”.
He argues that Europe’s core crisis – a lack of industrial demand – will be aggravated by the measures, as they fail to also cover steel-containing manufactured goods, otherwise known as steel derivatives. This will exacerbate the cost disadvantages of EU fabricators against international competition, he concludes.
That point is also underlined by Alexander Julius, president of EUROMETAL. Unlike Schneider, he advocates safeguard measures in principle, but criticises that they stop short of including steel derivatives. “If steel derivatives are not added to the measures, I wonder who the European mills want to sell their steel to in future,” he said in a recent BBC interview.
He noted that exports of steel derivatives from China to Europe have grown by 20% annually in recent years.
Christian Koehl Germany
