At the beginning of the year, Eurofer predicted a recovery of apparent steel consumption in the EU27 by 2.2%, rising to 130 million tonnes in 2025.
There was a short-lived rebound of apparent demand in February-April 2025, related to restocking activity and expectations of tougher steel safeguards measures, and consequently lower import availability. But since May activity in the European flat steel market has been deteriorating, with prices under pressure.
For example, in April, Fastmarkets’ steel hot-rolled coil index, domestic, exw Northern Europe, averaged €652.74 ($746.03) per tonne.
Since then, the average monthly price of HRC has been decreasing step by step and, on June 4, the daily index was calculated at €612.50 per tonne – the lowest since February 20, 2025.
Short-term expectations remained quite bearish amid a lack of real demand and mounting import pressure, trade sources told Fastmarkets.
“Before this year’s end, we will see more price drops. Demand is just not there, the US imposes 50% [import] tariffs on steel, CBAM [the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism] is approaching – [there’s] no light at the end of the tunnel,” a buyer in Germany said.
Real steel consumption in the EU shrank by 3.8% in 2024 to around 132.7 million tonnes, from around 138 million tonnes in 2023. For 2025, Eurofer expected another 3.3% decline.
According to the association, apparent steel consumption in the EU in 2026 will increase by only 3.4% to 132 million tonnes, still below the pre-pandemic volume of 145 million tonnes in 2019. This figure was also revised downward from 133 million tonnes expected in February 2025.
“The overall evolution of steel demand remains subject to very high uncertainty,” Eurofer’s report said. “No improvement in apparent steel consumption is expected before the fourth quarter of 2025, and consumption volumes are expected to remain far below pre-pandemic levels.”
End-user outlook
Automotive
Against earlier expectations of a modest recovery in 2025 (+2.1% in the previous outlook published in February), output in the automotive sector was now set to suffer from increasing global uncertainty and very low confidence, resulting in another annual drop (-2.6%), before a projected recovery in 2026 (+1.9%) – although absolute output volumes will remain far below 2019 levels, Eurofer said.
“Demand is projected to remain weak until the macroeconomic picture and consumer disposable income substantially improve, given the rather unpredictable economic outlook and uncertain economic growth perspectives,” the Eurofer report said.
The association pointed out that full recovery in global trade and external demand from major markets, notably the US and China, seemed unlikely, given escalating global trade tensions, especially in light of recently announced US tariffs.
Major challenges were expected to persist, notably concerning Chinese electric vehicle (EV) export volumes to EU markets but also as regards the US, where the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) was expected to further stimulate domestic EV production.
The automotive industry was faced with 25% tariffs, announced by the US on all imported vehicles in March. On top of that, on June 4, the US doubled its tariffs on steel and aluminium to 50%, as part of President Donald Trump’s broader trade policy.
“Due to US tariffs – both announced and implemented – economic uncertainty is likely to intensify, weighing on growth in the coming quarters,” Euorfer’s report said.
The automotive sector accounts for around 20% of total steel consumption in the EU, according to Eurofer.
The US is the second-largest market for EU vehicle exports after the UK. In terms of value, the US accounts for about one-fifth of the EU export market, according to European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA). In 2024, a total of 757,654 new vehicles were exported from the EU to the US, worth €38.9 billion ($44.5 billion).
ACEA highlighted that European manufacturers export 50-60% of the vehicles they make to the US.
Meanwhile, total carbon steel exports from the EU in 2024 amounted to 15.8 million tonnes, with the US share being around 16%, 2.5 million tonnes.
Construction
Output in construction, the largest steel-using sector, representing 35% of total consumption, fell by 2% in 2024.
In fact, construction output in the EU has been under pressure since the third quarter of 2022. This was due to several factors, including rising construction material prices, labor shortages in some EU countries, and increasing economic uncertainty, Eurofer said.
“Construction confidence has been declining since March 2022 and has remained in negative territory ever since, as confirmed by the latest available data [April 2025],” Eurofer said.
The sector was expected to grow only modestly, by 1.1% in 2025, due to persistently weak housing demand. In 2026, construction output in the EU was expected to recover by 0.8% year on year, primarily driven by the effects of monetary easing.
Fastmarkets’ price assessment for steel reinforcing bar (rebar), domestic, delivered Northern Europe, averaged €663.00 per tonne at the midpoint in April 2025, up month on month by €18.00 per tonne from €645.00 per tonne in March.
