The recovery in steel demand in the EU has been delayed until 2026, Alessandro Sciamarelli, director of economic and market research at European steel producers’ federation Eurofer, told delegates at Kallanish Europe Steel Markets 2025 in Amsterdam on 17 June. Meanwhile, the bloc is at risk of remaining a structural net importer of steel.
EU steel-weighted industrial production (SWIP) fell by 3.7% on-year in 2024, driven by the automotive sector, but with declines also across construction, mechanical engineering, domestic appliances and other sectors. However, most of Europe has managed a “soft landing”, he noted. Only Germany went into a formal recession over 2023-2024.
In 2025, SWIP is expected to decline another 0.5%, Sciamarelli added. The construction sector has stabilised, thanks in large part to major public spending investments. Automotive remains weak, falling another 2.6%. An expected recovery this year has been postponed by trade frictions with the USA, to which the automotive sector is particularly vulnerable.
In 2026, Eurofer expects SWIP to recover 1.3% with all major sectors seeing some improvement. However, this would still leave demand far below 2008 levels.
Sciamarelli also noted there is significant uncertainty around any forecasts. In addition to trade frictions, there are a number of geopolitical risks. Inflation has returned to around the 2% target, but a spike in energy prices could derail this.
The EU has been a net steel importer since 2017. In addition to high domestic production costs, global overcapacity is resulting in high volumes shipped to the bloc, Sciamarelli argued. “Is the EU permanently becoming a net importer of steel products?” he asked.
