In the UK and EU markets, where cost pressures from CBAM are steadily increasing, the expected tightening of supply towards 2026 alongside shrinking imports points to faster price rises in the medium term. However, current order flow remains cautious.
While interest in green steel in the European steel sector is seen as a strategic focus for the coming years of increasing pressure, buyer interest remains low under present market conditions. Companies believe the green transition will accelerate only when free emission allowances are reduced, and most buyers are reluctant to bear additional costs in today’s weak demand environment. It is noted that only project-based users with special budgets may prefer to pay a premium, with a reasonable premium range for green HRC discussed between €50–80/ton.
In the UK market, imports are expected to contract significantly due to CBAM and new protectionist measures coming into effect in 2026. With additional tariffs of £30–130 per ton, a 50% reduction in quotas, and increased penalties for over-quota imports, the EU and UK could recover the 18–20 million tons of lost business volume. Prices are anticipated to have short-term upside potential of £80/ton and could exceed £200/ton by 2026.
Rising uncertainties around CBAM, a shift of buyers back to European sources, declining Asia-origin supply, and cautious behavior from importers indicate a serious supply tightening by 2026. Producers continue aggressive pricing in the short term, but rising domestic purchases could rapidly tighten the market. Service centers prefer to hold wide stocks and warn that pricing may be updated quickly in response to market movements.
Looking at prices, suppliers in European countries have recently made limited attempts to raise prices, but buyers remain very resistant to these efforts. Weak demand is creating an environment where prices are merely being tested.
In Germany, prices stand at €615/t EXW for hot-rolled coil (HRC), €710/t EXW for cold-rolled coil (CRC), €710–715/t EXW for galvanized products, €685/t EXW for plates, €600/t CPT for rebar, and €585–600/t CPT for wire rod. Despite small attempts by producers to increase prices, buyers have not backed down, showing that upward pressure is not sustained in the market.
A similar picture is seen in Italy, with HRC at €605/t EXW, CRC at €700–705/t EXW, galvanized products at €720/t EXW, plates at €625–630/t EXW, rebar at €530–550/t EXW, and wire rod at €580–600/t CPT. Suppliers try to push prices up, but low order activity mostly limits any increases.
In Poland, wire rod is at €600–615/t CPT and rebar at €570–575/t CPT. Although traders attempt price hikes, cautious buyer behavior keeps prices from moving above the current range.
On the slab side, offers from China at $520/t, Vietnam at $515/t, Indonesia at $510/t, and Libya at $490/t CFR Italy indicate that existing cost advantages remain strong, preventing successful price increase attempts.
In the January order cycle, buyers maintain a cautious stance. Adequate stock levels and uncertainty over whether any price rise will be sustained slow order momentum. Suppliers are trying to reduce spot sales pressure by pushing for long-term contracts, but no significant progress has been made yet. German buyers state that producers imposed a €100/t price hike on HRC, but the market did not accept this increase.
Imported HRC in Italy is very active. Including CBAM costs, a broad stock range is available for Q1 2026 deliveries at €560–600/t DDP. Some of these products are waiting at ports, some are in transit, and a significant portion has already been booked for Q1 delivery around €580/t DDP. Offers for January deliveries from India, Indonesia, and Türkiye at €580–600/t DDP confirm that CBAM-related cost increases are now fully reflected in prices.
