European domestic prices for steel hot-rolled coil were little changed on Thursday May 28, and with the recent round of restocking now concluded and no sign of a meaningful increase in consumption in the near term, industry sources saw little room for a rebound in domestic prices over the summer.
In Germany, July-delivery HRC was heard traded around €680-685 ($797-803) per tonne ex-works.
Official offers of July-delivery coil were reported in the wider range of €710-730 per tonne delivered (€695-715 per tonne ex-works) from integrated suppliers in Germany and the Benelux area. An offer from a re-roller was heard lower, around €660-670 per tonne ex-works.
Trading in the region was really slow, with most sources on the buy side reporting sufficient stocks and no urgent need for material.
“We have enough [HRC] in stock until September. Some of our peers have enough to last until October, considering the levels of real demand,” a steel-service centre in Germany said.
“The level of stock [of HRC] is high and it is going down very slowly, so there is no need to restock,” a second steel service center in Europe said.
Overall, industry sources saw no real opportunity for any immediate price rise during summer.
Some integrated suppliers indicated higher offers for late-third-quarter deliveries as well, up to €760-800 per tonne delivered, although those were more indications than firm offers. But buyers have deemed those totally unworkable so far.
“It’s not just ArcelorMittal – some other mills have indicated similar [higher offers] for late-third-quarter deliveries, counting on support from the new [EU] safeguards” a buyer in Northern Europe said.
“But the effect from new trade measures [in the regime coming into force on July 1] will not be immediate either – there is a significant volume of import tonnage in the pipeline arriving in June. But by September and October, tighter import availability will start to bite,” the buyer added.
Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index, domestic, exw Northern Europe, was calculated at €680.73 per tonne on May 28, up by €0.73 per tonne from €680.00 per tonne on May 27.
The index was up by €0.31 per tonne week on week but down by €24.90 per tonne month on month.
Meanwhile, in the secondary market, sales of 4mm S235-grade HR sheet were heard around €750 per tonne CPT in Germany, with one supplier from central Europe selling aggressively at €740 per tonne CPT, while sources also reported sales of import material from stock at €720-730 per tonne CPT.
In Southern Europe, Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index, domestic, exw Italy, was calculated at €670.42 per tonne on May 28, down by €5.83 per tonne from €676.25 per tonne on May 18.
The index was also down by €7.08 per tonne week on week and down by €29.58 per tonne month on month.
Weak demand and comfortable inventory levels at buyers continued to damp trading activity in the Italian HRC market, with offers heard at €700 per tonne delivered (€685 per tonne ex-works).
Industry sources noted, however, that lower prices could be achieved on larger tonnages, with achievable price estimates coming in at €660-680 per tonne ex-works.
As for imports, buying interest in overseas material was limited by regulations – both the upcoming new trade regime and the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM).
New measures to shield the EU steel market cleared the European Parliament on May 19, 2026, with formal European Council approval still pending before they enter into force on July 1.
The reform replaces existing safeguards with a tariff-rate quota system that sharply tightens import conditions – slashing allowable volumes by around 47% from the 18.3 million tonne annual benchmark set in 2024 and doubling out-of-quota duties to 50%.
Precise quota allocations by country were expected to follow in June, according to sources close to the process.
Recently, European buyers have been prioritizing Turkish or Algerian coil bookings due to shorter lead times and lower potential CBAM costs. No fresh offers have been reported from either origin so far this week due to the Eid al-Adha celebrations.
Two sources reported a large HRC sale from Indonesia to Spain in May around €590-600 per tonne CFR, exclusive of CBAM costs. But it was not confirmed at the time of publication.
Other industry stakeholders, however, reported new offers from Indonesia no higher than $650-670 per tonne CFR to Italy.
“Indonesia is a huge risk,” an Italian buyer said, “because of the high emissions default values they have under CBAM, so I’m surprised anyone would risk buying it.”
