European coil prices rose as the week reached its conclusion, amid market conditions that are increasingly amenable to uptrends given relaxing import pressure and fuller orderbooks for the regions’ producers.
Rising offer prices
Northwest European hot-rolled coil (HRC) offers were around EUR590/t ex-works, with the majority of mills increasing their offer prices to this level – around a EUR30/t increase on previous offer prices.
“Mills seem to have collected enough orders to be comfortable holding back and raising offers,” a trader source said.
“Steelmaker orderbooks are much better after all the low-price sales over the past month,” agreed a distributor, “soon buyers will realise they’ve exhausted their import alternatives and will start accepting higher prices.”
That said, buy- and sell-side sources still perceived opportunity at week’s end to secure last-minute deals at around EUR550-560/t ex-works. A German service centre source held an offer within that range valid until end of day from a leading mill, while a Benelux distributor reported a rejected bid at EUR550/t delivered (the equivalent of around EUR540/t ex-works).
In South Europe, the Italian market experienced similar offer increases – though not as forcefully as in the North – with an offer reported from buy-side at EUR580/t delivered. A producer source reported more “realistic” offers in the market as grouping around EUR550/t ex-works, against buyer bids at EUR520/t ex-works, and considered current and near-term deals to fall within that spread.
Diminishing import pressures
Declining import pressure was said to be a primary factor motivating mills to increase offer prices, as January’s tandem uncertainties of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and a possible expediting of the European Commission’s long-term replacement for the EU’s steel safeguard system both threaten unpredictable duties on current import lead times.
“CBAM remains a big concern for us,” said a northern distributor. “To be honest it will definitely be less risky just to source from local mills.”
Trading sources reported that while Indian, Algerian, and Turkish material could still technically arrive in time to escape CBAM liabilities, by then safeguard quotas could be exhausted such to require out-of-quota clearances under the 25% duty-rate, or even become subject to an upwardly revised rate if the safeguard replacement is brought forward to January from July as rumoured.
Import prices were generally reported higher, with one Italian trader stating that international steel could no longer be sourced below EUR500/t CFR, seeing offers slightly higher at EUR515-520/t CFR Italy. Imports from Asia were said to be particularly exposed to CBAM costs due to their higher emissions balance. A larger service center did still report lower import prices as available for Indonesian material at EUR450-460/t CIF.
European capacity reductions
The region’s steelmakers have also signalled capacity reductions down-the-road, with ArcelorMittal Poland scheduling a temporary idling of its blast furnace (BF) No. 3 at Dąbrowa Górnicza for September, leaving a single furnace operational. The company highlighted the squeeze of ETS cost exposure and the dominance of imports in the Polish market (cited as an 80-95% market share) as motivating the shutdown.
Swedish steelmaker SSAB also indicated plans to reduce output in the third quarter – adjusting production and staffing levels. The decision was premised on a combination of demand decline factors, namely the seasonal summer slowdown, and growing uncertainty in the market from combative trade protectionism.
In other news, Italy’s Ministry for Enterprises and Made in Italy (MIMIT) announced that the final meeting of Acciaierie d’Italia’s (ADI) technical committee would be held to finalize future upgrades and the wider decarbonisation strategy for the plant on 31 July. Italian authorities have already reviewed a number of options for the site including integrating gas supplies for direct-reduced iron (DRI) production, to replace the plant’s blast furnaces.
Local Italian media reported a series of agreements from this week’s economic summit between Italy and Algeria in Rome, specifically citing an agreement between Italian steel consortium CEIP scarl and Algerian industrial specialists Copresud for a new Algerian DRI plant, while Duferco and Copresud separately signed a Memorandum of Understanding “with the aim of strengthening collaboration in the energy sector, focusing on the integration of renewable energy sources and the progressive use of green hydrogen in industrial processes.” McCloskey understands that both agreements remain independent of ADI’s aforementioned decarbonisation strategy.
Green Steel
While the green steel markets remain subdued awaiting regulatory clarity from the European Commission’s low-carbon label, which seeks to define green steel for the generation of decarbonisation-supportive lead markets and associated pricing premiums, McCloskey continues to record spot deals for low-carbon products.
Northwest European distributors reported actual and estimated premiums of EUR80-100/t for green HRC this week, with CO2 content of 0.75-0.8t per ton. Mass-balanced material was heard available at a EUR60/t premium, offering a 20% emissions reduction from 2t CO2e/t.
“We still trade [green steel] regularly for smaller volumes,” said one distributor, achieving premiums of around EUR100/t to traditional steel prices in sales to end-users. “Companies increasingly need it to manage their own emissions targets.”
McCloskey’s reduced carbon marker – calculated on the basis of all green HRC premiums surveyed in the week to publication – reflects this consistency, standing at EUR62.21/t as of 25 July and demonstrating a relative variability of just over 6% in 2025 to-date.
European coil and green steel prices
| Term | Marker | Change | |
| Weekly Northwest Europe steel coil | |||
| Northwest Europe ex-works HRC | EX-WORKS | 555 | 15 |
| Northwest Europe ex-works CRC | EX-WORKS | 650 | 10 |
| Northwest Europe ex-works HDG | EX-WORKS | 660 | 0 |
| Weekly South Europe steel coil | |||
| Italy ex-works HRC | EX-WORKS | 530 | 10 |
| South Europe CIF HRC | CIF | 510 | 10 |
| Weekly Green steel | |||
| Green Northwest Europe HRC premium (scopes 1-3 CO2 0.8t) | 80 | 10 | |
| Green Northwest Europe ex-works HRC (scopes 1-3) | EX-WORKS | 635 | 25 |
| Green HRC premium (scopes 1-2 CO2 0.5t) | 80 | 10 | |
| Green Northwest Europe ex-works HRC (scopes 1-2) | EX-WORKS | 635 | 25 |
| Green HRC reduced carbon price (scopes 1-3) | 62.21 | 3.94 |
Benjamin Steven Journalist, Steel
Maria Tanatar Associate Director, Steel and Green Steel
