Transaction prices for domestic coil in Europe increased in the week to 6 March as buying activity recovered, fuelled by potential shortage fears.
European buyers, both distributors and end users, have been concerned that the conflict in the Middle East, which has already disrupted some of the traditional supply routes, could result in shortages in the EU. Consequently, they were focused on domestic purchases either from the mills or from distributors to build stocks.
Multiple market sources have drawn comparisons between the current situation and the market developments in either 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic or in 2022 following Russia’s attack on Ukraine. In both cases in the past, shortage fears drove prices to record-high levels and triggered excessive restocking, which was then followed by a price drop and a slump in both real and apparent demand.
The current circumstances, however, are unlikely to follow a similar radical scenario, market sources believe. While a clear uptrend has settled in the European coil market due to delays in import deliveries and rising energy costs, the steelmakers have been taking their time to evaluate the situation.
Rumours that circulated in the market earlier this week that coil producers had withdrawn their offers were unfounded. European steelmakers continued to trade steel coil with selected buyers, as they have sufficient order books and are expected to increase offers soon.
“The steelmakers are cherry-picking deals they want to make and customers they are ready to give offers to,” a Northwest European service center said.
The mills are expected to increase official offers soon, as the current transaction prices have already moved close to their initial target prices in Northwest Europe.
“Last week the sentiment turned more pessimistic due lack of demand improvement and unwillingness of the end users to accept the higher prices. But now the end users are booking volumes, so are distributors, as they think that the market might repeat the situation of either 2020 or 2022,” a mill source said. “The mills are holding back now, and they are trying to figure out the price they should start asking from next week.”
The anticipated offer rise, however, is unlikely to be drastic, multiple sources said. The steelmakers are expected to use the current sentiment to increase prices, but are unlikely to inflate them to the point that it paralyzes the supply chains and scares away buyers, according to market participants.
The domestic supply is expected to be enough to compensate for any missing import volumes, taking into account stable real demand and some planned blast furnace (BF) restarts, including in Poland and Italy. And import supply, although delayed, is expected to resume at a normal pace, sources said.
“So far we do not see big disruptions of deliveries although there are delays for import for sure and there are no major price hikes,” an Italian service center said.
In Northwest Europe, deals for domestic hot-rolled coil (HRC) have been settled at EUR690-710/t ex-works, with the majority of the indications reported at EUR700-710/t ex-works. The deals were settled for smaller lots of material of a few hundred tonnes per lot.
In Italy, domestic HRC transactions were reported at EUR680-700/t ex-works.
In Northwest Europe, prices for both cold-rolled coil and hot-dipped galvanized coil have been heard at EUR790-830/t ex-works
Import offers limited
The number of import offers in Europe has been scarce as suppliers from Asia, which previously went through the Suez Canal, will now have to be rerouted via the Cape of Good Hope, resulting in higher freight costs and longer lead times. In fact, the first ships have already used the alternative route.
While delays in the delivery of imported coil in the EU are unlikely to exceed one month, buyers have grown concerned that the delivery disruptions would result in higher duties. The timing of the potential delays is critical, as the EU’s new quota system is expected to come into force from July this year.
Under the new quota system, a 47% reduction in volume and a doubling of duties to 50% have been proposed. Lack of details on the country-specific quotas or any caps in the global quotas has made European importers extremely cautious on steel imports arriving in the third quarter. The delivery delays greatly increase the likelihood of exceeding the new tighter quotas.
Turkey had reportedly sold significant HRC volumes to the EU and now has increased the prices. While deliveries from Turkey were not impacted by the geopolitical situation, importing larger volumes could result in exceeding the quota, sources said.
HRC offers from Turkey have been heard at EUR540-550/t CIF South Europe, including anti-dumping duties. Exporters from Algeria and Thailand have been offering HRC to Italy at EUR590/t CIF and at EUR570/t CIF, respectively.
HRC offers were reported at EUR605-640/t DDP Italian ports, including CBAM duties.
The weaker euro against the US dollar has also made imports more expensive.
Green Steel
Green HRC premia were rangebound on week as market participants dedicated their attention to mitigating potential effects of the Middle Eastern conflict. Spot premia for low-carbon EAF HRC are stable at around EUR80/t, according to McCloskey’s sources, while ultra-low-carbon or project-destined material trades can secure triple-digit premiums.
That said, there were significant developments in the low-carbon segment this week – though not necessarily of a positive nature – as the European Commission’s publication of the significantly delayed Industrial Accelerator Act confirmed that the EU’s first official green steel definition had been cut from the legislative proposal.
Additionally, while no substantive provisions relating to the low-carbon label have survived to the IAA’s official publication, references in the act’s explanatory recitals to the new standard suggest that the controversial ‘sliding scale’, will only be applied to flat steel products.
Instead, the ‘voluntary low-carbon label’ for steel – one of the Commission’s core commitments in last year’s Steel and Metals Action Plan (SMAP) – will now be pursued under the Ecodesign for Sustainable Products Regulation (ESPR). Steel-related delegated acts are scheduled for later this year.
| Weekly European steel coil | |||||
| EUR/t | Term | 06-Mar-26 | Change | ||
| Weekly Northwest Europe steel coil | |||||
| Northwest Europe ex-works HRC | EX-WORKS | 705.00 | 25.00 | ||
| Northwest Europe ex-works CRC | EX-WORKS | 810.00 | 30.00 | ||
| Northwest Europe ex-works HDG | EX-WORKS | 800.00 | 20.00 | ||
| Weekly South Europe steel coil | |||||
| Italy ex-works HRC | EX-WORKS | 690.00 | 15.00 | ||
| South Europe CIF HRC | CIF | 550.00 | 10.00 | ||
| Source: McCloskey by OPIS. | © 2026 Dow Jones Energy Limited. | ||||
| Weekly green steel | |||
| EUR/t | Term | 06-Mar-26 | Change |
| Green Northwest Europe HRC premium (scopes 1-3 CO2 under 0.8t) | 80.00 | 0.00 | |
| Green Northwest Europe ex-works HRC (scopes 1-3) | EX-WORKS | 785.00 | 25.00 |
| Green HRC premium (scopes 1-2 CO2 under 0.5t) | 80.00 | 0.00 | |
| Green Northwest Europe ex-works HRC (scopes 1-2) | EX-WORKS | 785.00 | 25.00 |
| Green HRC reduced carbon price (scopes 1-3) | 67.20 | 2.88 | |
