European coil prices consolidated higher in the week to 17 October, as steelmakers firmed their revised offer levels having filled much of their fourth-quarter allocations.
In Northwest Europe, hot-rolled coil (HRC) offers for 2025 delivery were reported between EUR620-630/t delivered, though McCloskey’s sources in both the production and distribution segments still consider trading levels as between EUR570-590/t on latest deals, and expect near-term volumes – where available – to settle between EUR580-600/t ex-works.
Forward offers for January were reported between EUR630-650/t delivered.
Mill sources reported strong sales at previous price levels following the latest round of steelmaker offer price increases, and some market participants see this latest offer rise as unlikely to have an immediate effect on spot prices, instead facilitating more attractive conditions for steelmakers in their upcoming long-term contract negotiations.
Distributors expect mills to attempt further increases alongside scheduled regulatory clarifications – namely the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) calculation values and clarifications to country-specific quotas within the European Commission’s proposed safeguard replacement – and don’t see the higher offer levels as realistic for now.
“We don’t see prices as rising in a significant way in the immediate term, as there are more regulations coming that will give mills more evidence for bullishness,” said a German distributor. “Everyone is watching stock levels, imports in-transit, and mill availability, as there are supply concerns if importing does become impossible, but so far this hasn’t resulted in massive deals – buyers aren’t quite that desperate yet.”
CBAM is already having a strong depressive effect on import competitiveness in advance of January’s fiscal implementation, as its uncertain cost implications for 2026 clearances leave importers exposed to unspecific costs beyond reasonable risk tolerances. Present import limitations could then be compounded by tightening from the European Commission’s proposed steel protection overhaul.
“Importers did see some tightening coming and so purchased high volumes of imports during the summer, but it’s not even close to mitigating the actual level of import restrictions we could see from CBAM and replacement safeguards,” said a Benelux-based distributor. “Some are still underestimating the volume cuts proposed, but it really seems unprecedented – and it’s not clear domestic mills can even fill the gaps.”
The source said that while distributors hoped that domestic price increases would carry through the value chain healthily, there were real fears that CBAM cash flow pressures would pressure some distributors to “offer at stupid prices,” and “create a cannibal cycle” in the stockholding segment.
A third distributor was more optimistic, saying that “the rise is supported by stockholders, as higher prices for new production will lead to higher priced stocks.”
Either way, mills now appear to have sufficient orderbooks for the rest of the year to begin firming their offer levels at least slightly, with sources across the value chain expecting traded volumes to increase in price toward EUR600/t ex-works as restocking proceeds, with the caveat that steel consumption is yet to recover in any meaningful capacity.
“To be honest it was a bit surprising to see European mills all follow the offer increases so quickly, but it seems they’ve filled a lot of their allocations and can afford to be a bit pickier,” said a North European mill source. “Certainly we are happy with the volumes we’ve secured [at previous price levels] with new customers, and can now more comfortably offer remaining volumes at higher prices.”
In Italy, offers were similarly heard at EUR620-630/t delivered, but sources were less consolidated in their price sentiments, with no deals heard in the week and reports of bids as high as EUR590/t ex-works regarded as unrealistic by mill sources.
“There is a price recovery, but realistic prices aren’t yet as high as some claim, and buyers are resistant,” said another mill source. “Prices in Italy could be EUR10-20/t higher, but haven’t approached the higher offer levels, overall it’s hard to say as liquidity remains low.”
As in North Europe, Italian sources expect prices to continue to rise in the more import-dependent Italian market as buyers are forced to turn to domestic mills for necessary volumes, and even import offers advertised as inclusive of CBAM duties are generally unattractive.
“There are just too many risks,” said an Italian trader. “New quotas could come in earlier than expected, and CBAM values aren’t clear – even when imports are offered with CBAM included there is limited interest.”
Import offers in Italy were reported at EUR500/t CFR ex-Indonesia, at EUR520-530/t CIF ex-Turkey, including anti-dumping duties, and ex-Asia for December shipment, and at EUR560/t CFR ex-Saudi Arabia.
Such import offers are increasingly reported alongside their associated embedded carbon emissions, and were communicated to traders at 1.3t CO2 content – coincidentally the level generally anticipated for CBAM’s blast furnace benchmark value – from both an Indonesian, and Saudi producer.
Green Steel
This week, discussions in the green steel segment largely concerned how support mechanisms for European steelmakers would better facilitate the clean transition, with delays from producers like ArcelorMittal and Salzgitter potentially disadvantaging them against competitors earlier to the decarbonisation game if demand for green steel ramps up significantly in the coming years.
This is expressed in the wide range of premiums offered for green steel products, at EUR200-300/t for low embedded emissions steel, and negotiable to below EUR100/t from steelmakers with incumbent scrap-based electric-arc furnace (EAF) production, as opposed to those producing with renewables-based direct-reduced iron. Stockholders are almost unanimously unwilling to pay green steel premiums above EUR100/t, and consider ‘workable’ spot premiums as around EUR80/t.
Demand from distributors is still reported at a low level, though steelmakers are still seeing an increase in long-term or future direct-to-consumer sales to the automotive, renewables, and construction sectors – though even this interest in decarbonised offerings is highly regional and limited on a spot basis.
McCloskey’s reduced carbon marker, calculated on the basis of all surveyed green HRC premia on week, currently stands at EUR59.92/t.
| Weekly European steel coil | |||||
| EUR/t | Term | 17-Oct-25 | Change | ||
| Weekly Northwest Europe steel coil | |||||
| Northwest Europe ex-works HRC | EX-WORKS | 585.00 | 5.00 | ||
| Northwest Europe ex-works CRC | EX-WORKS | 670.00 | 5.00 | ||
| Northwest Europe ex-works HDG | EX-WORKS | 690.00 | 10.00 | ||
| Weekly South Europe steel coil | |||||
| Italy ex-works HRC | EX-WORKS | 555.00 | 5.00 | ||
| South Europe CIF HRC | CIF | 525.00 | 5.00 | ||
| Source: McCloskey by OPIS. | © 2025 Dow Jones Energy Limited. | ||||
| Weekly green steel | |||
| EUR/t | Term | 17-Oct-25 | Change |
| Green Northwest Europe HRC premium (scopes 1-3 CO2 0.8t) | 80.00 | 0.00 | |
| Green Northwest Europe ex-works HRC (scopes 1-3) | EX-WORKS | 665.00 | 5.00 |
| Green HRC premium (scopes 1-2 CO2 0.5t) | 80.00 | 0.00 | |
| Green Northwest Europe ex-works HRC (scopes 1-2) | EX-WORKS | 665.00 | 5.00 |
| Green HRC reduced carbon price (scopes 1-3) | 59.91 | 12.29 | |
Maria Tanatar Associate Director, Steel and Green Steel
Benjamin Steven Journalist, Steel
