Prices for hot-rolled coil in the European Union remained stable in the week to 22 August amid a seasonally slow market, although some steelmakers increased offers.
Bullish market sentiment prevailed among market participants, but they believe that the expected price recovery in September would mainly be driven by upcoming policy changes, including the EU’s safeguard alternative and Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). The risks related to those changes have made buyers less interested in imports.
“No one is crazy enough to buy import now, except for maybe from Turkey due to shorter lead times and emission certifications. Regardless, the concern of the buyers regarding CBAM and new safeguard grow, and they would rather book from local mills,” a Benelux-based distributor said.
Some buyers have received higher offers for November delivery hot-rolled coil (HRC) from a major European producer at EUR630/t delivered Northwest Europe, up by EUR20/t from the previous offer level. October delivery material from the same supplier has still been available at EUR610/t delivered, in line with official offers from other mills.
Despite higher offers, European steelmakers have been ready to give discounts to fill their order books. They have settled a few deals and given offers to customers at EUR570-580/t ex-works Northwest Europe.
Some mills have also been ready to negotiate prices down for certain specifications.
Steelmakers need to fill their production lines for the fourth quarter, and they might be less bullish in their pricing, sources said.
Significant volumes of imported steel are already on the way to the EU. And the buyers are likely to customs clear those volumes in the fourth quarter this year despite possibly exceeding safeguard quotas in order to avoid CBAM tariffs which will come into force in 2026.
“The pressure on the European mills will stay high, as demand would not improve beyond seasonal fluctuations. And the volumes of import on the way to the EU are significant, and those products were booked at significantly cheaper prices,” a service center said.
Northwest European prices for cold-rolled and hot-dipped galvanized coil have been heard at EUR660-670/t ex-works and EUR670-680/t ex-works, respectively.
Safeguard alternative and CBAM
The European Commission is expected to announce proposals for the steel safeguard replacement next month. Some market participants suggested that the new measures could come into force in January 2026, increased of July of next year – after existing safeguard measures will come to an end.
The possibility of the new measures coming into force in the start of next year has made planning for imports with longer lead times riskier, market sources said.
In addition, CBAM is due to come into force in 2026. But lack of clear regulations available regarding CBAM duty calculations has deterred European buyers from booking overseas material. Some market participants speculated that an absence of final CBAM policies at this time could indicate that the implementation of the measures could be postponed by one year. But a majority of sources argued that such a significant regulation, which is linked to a wider decarbonization policy in the EU, could not be postponed.
Some mills from China have been offering steel to the EU including not only anti-dumping and anti-subsidy duties, but also any possible CBAM tariffs if the material arrives in 2026.
European importers have estimated CBAM duties for imported coil at EUR50-70/t.
Green steel
Trading activity in the green steel segment of the European steel market remained muted due to the seasonal August slowdown. However, some sources reported a growing number of enquiries for low-CO2 material.
But spot buyers have been refusing to accept offered premiums of around EUR200/t, and workable levels in the market remained at EUR70-100/t for European HRC. Some have opted to book mass balanced material as they can pay lower premiums if they do not requite significant CO2 emissions reduction.
Some projects, funded by state authorities in Northwest Europe, however, have been ready to pay the offer premiums.
McCloskey’s reduced carbon marker was calculated at EUR50.15/t on 22 August.
| European coil and green steel prices | Term | Marker | Change |
| Weekly Northwest Europe steel coil | |||
| Northwest Europe ex-works HRC | EX-WORKS | 575 | 0 |
| Northwest Europe ex-works CRC | EX-WORKS | 665 | 0 |
| Northwest Europe ex-works HDG | EX-WORKS | 675 | 5 |
| Weekly South Europe steel coil | |||
| Italy ex-works HRC | EX-WORKS | 540 | 0 |
| South Europe CIF HRC | CIF | 520 | 0 |
| Weekly Green steel | |||
| Green Northwest Europe HRC premium (scopes 1-3 CO2 0.8t) | 80 | 0 | |
| Green Northwest Europe ex-works HRC (scopes 1-3) | EX-WORKS | 655 | 0 |
| Green HRC premium (scopes 1-2 CO2 0.5t) | 80 | 0 | |
| Green Northwest Europe ex-works HRC (scopes 1-2) | EX-WORKS | 655 | 0 |
| Green HRC reduced carbon price (scopes 1-3) | 50.15 | -0.55 |
Maria Tanatar Associate Director, Steel and Green Steel
