European coil prices congregated higher in the week to 30 January, as the extension of mill lead times gave further strength to the firmness of offers for April delivery.
Only a few steelmakers were said to have allocation remaining for the first quarter, settling deals for March delivery hot-rolled coil (HRC) at prices of around EUR650/t ex-works. Strong stock levels limited the tractability of price increases for Q1 delivery, especially given end-consumer reluctance to absorb steel price inflation.
Downstream cold-rolled and hot-dip galvanized coils (CRC/HDG) were said to be fully booked out under Q2, trading at a substantial premium to HRC, between EUR750-760/t ex-works.
Mills were said to be targeting a minimum of EUR700/t ex-works or delivered for HRC, depending on location, and EUR800/t ex-works or delivered for CRC/HDG on indicative offers for second-quarter delivery.
Italian HRC prices similarly incremented higher on week, at parity or a slight discount to Northwestern price levels.
“Prices are slowly moving up, but the pace isn’t really increasing as buyers have enough in stock,” said a Benelux distributor. “That’ll all change however once imports face new quotas.”
The European Commission’s proposal to replace the EU’s existing steel safeguard was approved with amendments by Parliamentary committee earlier this week, and must now be reviewed by the European Council. This would authorise the Commission to proceed in negotiating with WTO trading partners to secure its desired increase to a 50% base steel tariff rate, necessary before July when current protections lapse.
Market participants are thus fairly unanimous in holding bullish expectations for steel prices in the latter half of this year, as lead times extend past the presumed entry into force of the proposed 47% cut to steel import quota levels in July.
“Demand remains weak, but the sentiment is bullish,” said a German distributor. “Lead times are getting longer and when the mills close their March orderbooks they’ll be on stronger grounds to increase prices further.”
Distributors were generally of a more positive mood over the week – though still lamenting depressed steel consumption – with one German distributor explaining that the return of mill lead times to traditional levels better facilitated stockholding as an enterprise, reducing opportunities for end-consumers to secure material from mills directly. That said, allegedly not all are following the market to higher price levels, and prefer to take profit where possible.
“Some distributors are acting stupidly and not increasing prices in line with the mills,” said a German distributor. “End-users are slowly catching up with the price trend – as they were less familiar with CBAM and upcoming quota effects – so realising higher levels isn’t impossible.”
The import market remains largely unattractive to European buyers due to regulatory costs from the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), and quota pressures later in the year, though one German distributor did suggest that HRC offers around EUR600-610/t DDP (including CBAM costs) were more competitive due to relative gains in the euro.
Offers into the Italian market were reported at EUR600-630/t DDP ex-Turkey, Algeria, and Taiwan, China.
Green steel
Following the recent leak of the Industrial Accelerator Act (IAA), the market is largely in wait-and-see mode and holding back from low-carbon sourcing in the domestic market.
Abroad however, traders are actively visiting suppliers to assess their emissions monitoring and CBAM readiness, optimistic that CBAM declarations will be successfully verified in reference to ‘actual’ (rather than ‘default’) emissions values, and beginning to look more granularly at exporters’ specific production processes to minimise CBAM liabilities.
As the IAA allows for the certification of international steel under its proposed “voluntary low-carbon label” for access to the EU’s public procurement markets; and indicates the EU’s intentions to align relevant emissions accounting processes under Emissions Trading System (ETS) and CBAM data for domestic and imported steel, respectively – traders actively anticipating the importance of transparency could see significant advantages as a result.
| Weekly European steel coil | |||||
| EUR/t | Term | 30-Jan-26 | Change | ||
| Weekly Northwest Europe steel coil | |||||
| Northwest Europe ex-works HRC | EX-WORKS | 650.00 | 10.00 | ||
| Northwest Europe ex-works CRC | EX-WORKS | 755.00 | 25.00 | ||
| Northwest Europe ex-works HDG | EX-WORKS | 760.00 | 15.00 | ||
| Weekly South Europe steel coil | |||||
| Italy ex-works HRC | EX-WORKS | 640.00 | 10.00 | ||
| South Europe CIF HRC | CIF | 530.00 | 0.00 | ||
| Source: McCloskey by OPIS. | © 2026 Dow Jones Energy Limited. | ||||
| Weekly green steel | |||
| EUR/t | Term | 30-Jan-26 | Change |
| Green Northwest Europe HRC premium (scopes 1-3 CO2 under 0.8t) | 70.00 | 0.00 | |
| Green Northwest Europe ex-works HRC (scopes 1-3) | EX-WORKS | 720.00 | 10.00 |
| Green HRC premium (scopes 1-2 CO2 under 0.5t) | 70.00 | 0.00 | |
| Green Northwest Europe ex-works HRC (scopes 1-2) | EX-WORKS | 720.00 | 10.00 |
| Green HRC reduced carbon price (scopes 1-3) | 49.08 | 7.41 | |
Author: Benjamin Steven & Maria Tanatar
