The uptrend in the European steel coil market is expected to resume in late August-September due to supply restrictions, while prices held stable in the week to 7 August due to the seasonally slow market.
In Northwest Europe, the latest deals for domestic hot-rolled coil (HRC) were settled at EUR720-730/t ex-works, and market participants assessed these prices as workable. Mills have been offering material at higher levels – EUR740-760/t ex-works – and transactions are expected to be settled within this range in September, when buyers return to the market after the summer holidays.
Several sources said that mills have already indicated that prices for first quarter 2027 HRC production will be around EUR800/t ex-works and that buyers will most likely have to accept this new price level.
In Italy, the latest deals for HRC have been reported at EUR700-720/t ex-works.
The bullish sentiment has been driven by the impact of the new tariff-rate quotas (TRQs), imposed on 1 July, which cut total import volumes by 47% and had a greater effect on coil due to the distribution of volumes among countries. The new trade measures, combined with the effects of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and the upcoming decision in the anti-dumping case into cold-rolled coil (CRC) imports, pushed buyers towards European suppliers as they sought to substitute missing import tonnages.
“According to my estimations, there will be a shortage of steel coil, and buyers will have to pay higher prices if they need volumes. They will either have to accept higher domestic prices or pay duties on imports,” a mill source said.
Domestic coil availability
ArcelorMittal resumed operations at three of its blast furnaces (BFs) this year, but other domestic producers had to reduce supply due to logistics and technical issues.
Notably, German steelmaker Thyssenkrupp reduced steel output in the middle of July at its Duisburg plant after low water levels on the Rhine River disrupted raw material supplies. Other producers in the area were also affected by the situation, and while raw-material inventories are sufficient to sustain production, albeit at reduced rates, sources worry that, if the drought continues, capacity utilisation could decline further.
Tata Steel IJmuiden in the Netherlands was reportedly catching up with a backlog of orders after restarting its direct sheet plant (DSP), which had been idled since early April after the environmental agency found that hazardous chromium VI emissions at the site exceeded legal thresholds.
On 27 July, the Milan Court of Appeal ordered Acciaierie d’Italia (ADI) to shut down operations in the hot section of its Taranto steel plant within the next 90 days. While the steelmaker has been operating one furnace and has not been active in the spot market, the absence of its material would hit major buyers — re-rollers and pipe makers — which used ADI’s HRC as feedstock. The situation has been made even more critical by TRQs, which significantly reduced access to imports.
Market participants also expressed doubts that the idled mills in Central Europe would be able to restart their melt shops even if some of them find new owners, as they would face additional carbon-emission costs since they would no longer have free allocations after such a long period of inactivity.
Distribution chain
The majority of distributors have attempted to increase steel prices, and end users are likely to accept the new levels. However, some service centres, apparently chasing cash flow, continued to offer material at low prices, undermining the market recovery. Market sources expect that these more competitive offers will disappear from the market by the end of the month.
The significant rise in steel prices is likely to open the EU market to imports of cheap steel-containing goods, which could harm both steelmakers and downstream companies. These products are not restricted by trade measures or CBAM.
This risks harming not just steelmakers, but the European steel distribution chain as well.
Green steel market
Activity in the green steel segment has also died down during the holiday period. Demand from end consumers is likely to see a slow but steady recovery this year as more companies seek trial purchases of low-CO2 steel. End consumers are less exposed to higher steel costs because they can dilute them within the total cost of the final goods.
Some market participants expressed doubts that buyers would accept green-steel premiums if traditional steel prices continue to rise.
Market participants estimated achievable premiums for green HRC at EUR160-180/t for end users.
Distributors avoided purchasing green-steel products with significant premiums unless they were part of back-to-back trades.
When distributors had a customer in mind and did not have to store the material, they were prepared to accept green-steel premiums of around EUR80/t.
| Weekly European steel coil | |||||
| EUR/t | Term | 07-Aug-26 | Change | ||
| Weekly Northwest Europe steel coil | |||||
| Northwest Europe ex-works HRC | EX-WORKS | 725.00 | 0.00 | ||
| Northwest Europe ex-works CRC | EX-WORKS | 830.00 | 0.00 | ||
| Northwest Europe ex-works HDG | EX-WORKS | 830.00 | 5.00 | ||
| Northwest Europe CIF HRC | CIF | 585.00 | 0.00 | ||
| Northwest Europe DDP port HRC | DDP Port | 700.00 | 0.00 | ||
| Weekly South Europe steel coil | |||||
| Italy ex-works HRC | EX-WORKS | 705.00 | 5.00 | ||
| South Europe CIF HRC | CIF | 580.00 | 5.00 | ||
| South Europe DDP port HRC | DDP Port | 700.00 | 0.00 | ||
| South Europe CIF CRC | CIF | 680.00 | 0.00 | ||
| South Europe DDP port CRC | DDP Port | 765.00 | 0.00 | ||
| Show less… | |||||
| Source: McCloskey by OPIS. | © 2026 Dow Jones Energy Limited. | ||||
| Weekly green steel | |||
| EUR/t | Term | 07-Aug-26 | Change |
| Green Northwest Europe HRC premium (scopes 1-3 CO2 under 0.8t) | 100.00 | 0.00 | |
| Green Northwest Europe ex-works HRC (scopes 1-3) | EX-WORKS | 825.00 | 0.00 |
| Green HRC premium (scopes 1-2 CO2 under 0.5t) | 100.00 | 0.00 | |
| Green Northwest Europe ex-works HRC (scopes 1-2) | EX-WORKS | 825.00 | 0.00 |
| Green HRC reduced carbon price (scopes 1-3) | 64.99 | -1.66 | |
Author: Benjamin Steven and Maria Tanatar
