European coil prices moved sideways in the week to 21 November as market participants digested recently leaked benchmark values for calculating Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) costs, to hit the market from January.
In Northwest Europe, coil prices were said to be largely stable. Mills have sold sufficient volumes to carry them into the new year, no longer pressured to give discounts in chasing what little demand is present in the market on high inventory levels, and subdued end-consumption dynamics.
Offers for hot-rolled coil (HRC) ex-works Northwest Europe were reported at around EUR620-650/t on an ex-works and delivered basis, though market participants on both sides of the market report volumes trading between EUR600-620/t ex-works.
Only the region’s re-roller was heard to be offering outside the above range, at EUR610-620/t delivered, the equivalent of around EUR580/t ex-works.
Volumes traded were said to be thin given the positioning of mills and buyers, both taking time to better understand this week’s clarifications to CBAM cost methodologies and potential impact.
Despite that, import offers were still reported for shipment to Northwest European ports, issued on a CBAM-inclusive basis.
McCloskey exclusively detailed leaked draft provisions informing the calculation on potential CBAM costs, which are generally not well understood by the market, both due to the complexity of relevant formulae, and the late stage at which calculation details have become more visible.
For example, a CBAM-inclusive offer for HRC ex-Indonesia, when calculated on the latest leaked benchmark and default values, could incur additional costs above EUR2.5m on a volume of 5,000 t. Additional cost calculations on said values generate a per ton value of over EUR550/t.
The majority of importers are very unhappy with both the high nature of some default values, and the massive increase it threatens for assumed risk profiles on imported material offered, and already on the water. One Northwest European trader estimated that at least 500,000 t of imported HRC would be customs cleared in December, to escape potential CBAM liabilities once the instrument enters its definitive stage from January.
Steelmakers are also criticizing the leaked default values, primarily as relates to China, which has a default emissions value of 1.75t CO2e/t for HRC, compared to the EU’s own 2.05t CO2e/t. If imported under the latest blast furnace route default benchmark, this would impose additional costs of just over EUR30/t, one of the lowest costs within the CBAM framework, potentially incentivizing rather than discouraging ex-China sourcing.
In Italy, similar dynamics were reported, with a static domestic market, and import offers ex-Turkey, and ex-Taiwan, China, heard at EUR620/t DDP.
“The market is basically at standstill,” said an Italian service center. “Buyers are avoiding imports unless offered on a DDP basis, and traders would rather hold the volumes they have until prices settle.”
Domestic price indications were reported by sources as ranging between EUR580-620/t ex-works, with transactional activity focused toward the bottom end of said range.
Green Steel
The green steel market remains focused on project applications while the value chain digests this week’s regulatory revelations, with spot HRC premiums at a stable EUR70-80/t to the distribution sector.
Low-carbon material for projects is offered at much higher premiums – as high as EUR300/t – though these prices remain unworkable for EU stockholders.
McCloskey’s reduced carbon market reflects this stability, currently standing at EUR44.48/t
| Weekly European steel coil | |||||
| EUR/t | Term | 21-Nov-25 | Change | ||
| Weekly Northwest Europe steel coil | |||||
| Northwest Europe ex-works HRC | EX-WORKS | 615.00 | -5.00 | ||
| Northwest Europe ex-works CRC | EX-WORKS | 710.00 | -5.00 | ||
| Northwest Europe ex-works HDG | EX-WORKS | 720.00 | 0.00 | ||
| Weekly South Europe steel coil | |||||
| Italy ex-works HRC | EX-WORKS | 585.00 | 5.00 | ||
| South Europe CIF HRC | CIF | 560.00 | 0.00 | ||
| Source: McCloskey by OPIS. | © 2025 Dow Jones Energy Limited. | ||||
| Weekly green steel | |||
| EUR/t | Term | 21-Nov-25 | Change |
| Green Northwest Europe HRC premium (scopes 1-3 CO2 under 0.8t) | 70.00 | 0.00 | |
| Green Northwest Europe ex-works HRC (scopes 1-3) | EX-WORKS | 685.00 | -5.00 |
| Green HRC premium (scopes 1-2 CO2 under 0.5t) | 70.00 | 0.00 | |
| Green Northwest Europe ex-works HRC (scopes 1-2) | EX-WORKS | 685.00 | -5.00 |
| Green HRC reduced carbon price (scopes 1-3) | 44.48 | 0.03 | |
Maria Tanatar Associate Director, Steel and Green Steel
Benjamin Steven Journalist, Steel
