Domestic Northwest European coil prices increased in the week to 14 November despite a slowdown in trading activity after restocking.
The price rise was supported by an anticipated reduction of import availability due to the new stricter quotas system and increased import prices due to the implementation of the carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) in 2026.
Trading activity has slowed after active restocking over the past couple of weeks. Although European mills still have room to fill in their order books, they chose to focus on negotiations of long-term contracts for next year with the automotive industry and other end-users.
“The mills do not have full order books, but they are focused on long-term contract negotiations instead of spot trading. The steelmakers are trying to decouple the spot business and long-term contracts,” a German distributor said.
In Northwest Europe, hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices have been reported in a wide range of EUR590-650/t ex-works. But the both ends of the range represent special deals, while the average transaction level was heard at EUR610-630/t ex-works. And the region’s mills have been offering the material at EUR650/t ex-works.
Prices for downstream coil, particularly for cold-rolled coil (CRC), have increased more significantly over the week. European mills have been traditionally avoiding sales of commodity grades CRC due to higher costs related to energy and buyers have been heavily relying on more competitive import material. But as the upcoming regulation changes will both reduce the overseas supply and add CBAM duties to import prices, European buyers have to source more CRC from domestic suppliers.
Some sources even reported CRC prices above those for hot-dipped galvanized coil (HDG).
“There is a concern in the market that we might see a shortage of CRC next year due to effects from the new quotas and unwillingness of the European mills to sell it. EU producers prefer to sell HRC or HDG produced from HRC, as costs for CRC are higher,” a distributor said.
Prices for CRC have been heard at EUR700-730/t and for HDG – at EUR710-730/t, both ex-works Northwest Europe.
Italy prices hold stable
In Italy, domestic prices remained unchanged despite steelmakers’ attempts to achieve an increase. Offers have been heard at EUR620-630/t delivered, the equivalent of EUR600-620/t ex-works Italy.
But steelmakers have been giving discounts to fill their December rolling, and deals were reported at EUR570-580/t ex-works. And for January, transactions have been settled at EUR580-590/t ex-works.
Market prepares to import under CBAM
Availability of lower priced imported HRC decreased as buyers prefer to book material from traders with CBAM risks covered. Only some big buyers, like pipemakers, have been willing to acquire coil on CFR basis and to take risks related to CBAM duties.
Traders have been offering HRC from Turkey and Asia at EUR580-600/t DDP, including CBAM duties.
HRC from Indonesia has been offered at EUR470-480/t CFR, excluding CBAM duties which the importer will have to cover.
Several sources said that importing steel from India was too risky as if the EU authorities use high default values for the country in their duty calculations instead of actual values for a mill, the duties would be too high. Therefore, until all the regulations are in place and working they would avoid the material.
Market participants estimated that average CBAM duties were EUR50-80/t for HRC.
Green steel market
Interest in green steel has remained limited as buyers have been more focused on how the new regulations will affect traditional steel trading. Some buyers, however, said that as free emission allowances will decrease in the coming couple of years the market will shift towards green steel.
“There is interest for green steel from end users, but without support and initiative from the EU authorities the buyers will keep choosing not to pay premium. The market is not in the best shape now so any additional costs are unlikely, unless there is a budget for a particular project,” a service center said.
Buyers have estimated an achievable premium for green HRC with CO2 content of around 0.7t at EUR50-80/t.
| Weekly European steel coil | |||||
| EUR/t | Term | 14-Nov-25 | Change | ||
| Weekly Northwest Europe steel coil | |||||
| Northwest Europe ex-works HRC | EX-WORKS | 620.00 | 5.00 | ||
| Northwest Europe ex-works CRC | EX-WORKS | 715.00 | 20.00 | ||
| Northwest Europe ex-works HDG | EX-WORKS | 720.00 | 10.00 | ||
| Weekly South Europe steel coil | |||||
| Italy ex-works HRC | EX-WORKS | 580.00 | 0.00 | ||
| South Europe CIF HRC | CIF | 560.00 | 0.00 | ||
| Source: McCloskey by OPIS. | © 2025 Dow Jones Energy Limited. | ||||
| Weekly green steel | |||
| EUR/t | Term | 14-Nov-25 | Change |
| Green Northwest Europe HRC premium (scopes 1-3 CO2 under 0.8t) | 70.00 | -5.00 | |
| Green Northwest Europe ex-works HRC (scopes 1-3) | EX-WORKS | 690.00 | 0.00 |
| Green HRC premium (scopes 1-2 CO2 under 0.5t) | 70.00 | -5.00 | |
| Green Northwest Europe ex-works HRC (scopes 1-2) | EX-WORKS | 690.00 | 0.00 |
| Green HRC reduced carbon price (scopes 1-3) | 44.45 | -0.03 | |
Maria Tanatar Associate Director, Steel and Green Steel
Benjamin Steven Journalist, Steel
