The slide in coil prices seen for more than a month all over Europe could bottom in mid-to-end July, when ordering imports becomes too risky with the approach of CBAM, Kallanish hears from market players.
According to one, the main driver of the price deterioration has been the market leader mill seeking to compete with still attractive, low-priced import offers. However, imports would have to arrive in Europe before 1 October, meaning orders from overseas mills would need to be placed until mid-July, but not much thereafter.
“Traders are therefore reserved; also, because volumes arriving in October or after would bring up inventory levels before year-end, which people try to avoid,” he notes.
Not all players agree with the argumentation, although they do see a barrier from 1 January 2026, when CBAM takes effect. “Further down the road this year, imports will not make sense,” one buyer says.
Another insider observes that Japan-origin product is quite popular among importers now, given the depreciation of the yen versus the euro. Japanese hot rolled coil can be had for some €530/tonne ($621) fca Antwerp, and cold rolled coil for €620/t.
Another country that has entered the fray is Indonesia, which is exempt from EU safeguards because of its status as a developing country. “European buyers ordered low volumes for quality testing first, but now they are going for big-size orders,” the insider says. HRC from Indonesia can be had at below €520/t fca Antwerp, and even lower when landing in Italy, at €480-490/t, he notes.
From domestic European mills, most players see HRC prices at below €600/t, currently mostly in the range of €570-590, with some lower-priced deals reported. CRC prices will keep their premium over HRC at €80+, and galvanized at €100+. The price deterioration with these products has been less pronounced mainly because of the extra energy costs involved, amid high power prices in most European countries.
Christian Koehl Germany
