European construction output to fall like in 2009

Euroconstruct (EC-19) area construction output is set to fall this year by -11.5% year-on-year, in line with the fall registered back in 2009, says the European construction research network in its latest outlook. A partial recovery is expected for 2021 and 2022 but levels will remain below those seen in 2018.

EC-19 area output grew 2.7% y-o-y in 2019, driven mainly by new constructions. Total construction output reached €1,700 billion in 2019. This year the decline is now expected to be -11.5% y-o-y. “The total construction output is expected to reach about €1,500 billion which corresponds to the level of 2015, hence losing several years of growth,” Euroconstruct explains in a note seen by Kallanish.

Among the largest countries, Germany will see output decrease by only -2.4% y-o-y, while Italy, Spain, France and the UK will see it dropping by as much as -12-33% y-o-y. Portugal and Poland will be among the few countries to register growth despite the coronavirus emergency.

“Total construction for EC-19 countries will see a rebound already next year by around 6% and then continue to grow by 3% in 2022, reaching an output level similar to the one in 2018,” Euroconstruct explains. “Still, there are downward risks to the forecast and the most significant one involves the coronavirus and the containment of it. Questions such as, will there be further lockdowns after restrictions are being eased or will everyday life start to go back to normal after the summer, are affecting the market view.”

Civil engineering is expected to be the least impacted segment within the construction sector, while residential and non-residential construction will suffer more in the 2020-2022 period.