Bullish sentiment prevailed in the European heavy plate market in the week to 21 November supported by an expected increase in slab costs related to implementation of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and anticipated demand recovery in 2026.
The leaked draft provisional benchmarks for the CBAM show that the potential duties on imported slab can be much higher then originally anticipated. Re-rollers also might need to substitute some of the origins with alternatives as default values for some countries were higher then expected and the needed certification of emissions of exporters would take time.
Notably, some sources said that slab imports from Indonesia and Turkey might go down until the actual emission values for the mills are determined. A distributor also suggested that the market is discussing the possibility of Germany’s Hüttenwerke Krupp Mannesmann (HKM) taking over part of the market share of imported slab.
Adding pressure on re-rollers, supply of imported slab will be reduced following implementation of the 19th round of sanctions against Russia adopted in the EU in late October including measures against Evraz PLC, a UK-headquartered company with core steel manufacturing and mining assets in Russia.
Suppliers from Asia and Brazil have been offering slab at $500-520/t CFR Italy, not including CBAM duties.
Apart from pressure from the cost side, some price support is expected to come from anticipated demand improvement next year, particularly higher steel consumption from infrastructure projects.
“All market participants hope to see an increased demand, stimulated by German infrastructure and defence, which will require a lot of infrastructure as well as investments,” a German service center said, adding some hope to see this as soon as the second quarter, but most in the second half of 2026.
Some sources also suggested that the distributors do not have sufficient stocks to cover needs for the first quarter of next year, and that they will have to resume purchases soon.
Italian re-rollers, more exposed to the rise of export slab costs, have been aiming to get EUR650-680/t ex-works next year. Latest deals for December rolling plate, however, have been settled at EUR630-650/t ex-works. The Italian mills have closed December order books.
In Northwest Europe, German mills have been offering heavy plate at EUR700-750/t ex-works. But some of the country’s mills have been ready to accept prices of EUR670-680/t ex-works.
A Scandinavian integrated steelmaker has been offering plate at EUR720/t ex-works.
Offers from Poland and Czech Republic have been heard at EUR680-690/t ex-works, with mills able to give discounts of up to EUR30/t, according to some sources.
| Weekly European heavy plate, slab and green steel | |||||
| Unit | Term | 21-Nov-25 | Change | ||
| Weekly heavy plate | |||||
| Northwest Europe ex-works heavy plate | EUR/t | EX-WORKS | 700.00 | -10.00 | |
| Germany delivered heavy plate (Northwest Europe) | EUR/t | DEL | 730.00 | 0.00 | |
| Italy ex-works heavy plate | EUR/t | EX-WORKS | 645.00 | 0.00 | |
| Weekly steel slab | |||||
| Italy CFR slab | $/t | CFR | 510.00 | 0.00 | |
| Weekly green steel | |||||
| Green heavy plate premium (scopes 1-3 CO2 under 1t) | EUR/t | 25.00 | 0.00 | ||
Maria Tanatar Associate Director, Steel and Green Steel
Benjamin Steven Journalist, Steel
