European hot-rolled coil producers were pushing for higher offer prices amid trade policy developments, but buyers remained cautious citing subdued real demand, sources told Fastmarkets on Monday October 20.
The European HRC market has remained in a state of uncertainty so far in October, with many buyers resisting higher prices.
Market participants reported that while trade policy developments and future expectations point to potential price rises in early 2026, conditions for the remainder of 2025 remain fragile due to high buyer inventories and subdued consumption.
“Demand is missing totally. Stocks are [high on] low buying activity,” one German buyer said, adding that the current conditions could persist for a few more weeks.
Prices in Northern Europe edged slightly higher in mid-October, supported by seller optimism around the European Commission’s new trade regime proposed on October 7.
Mills reported an increase in inquiries following the policy news, although few have yet translated into transactions.
Offers for December- and January-delivery HRC were widely reported at €600-650 per tonne ex-works or delivered, with ArcelorMittal announcing new offer prices of €630 per tonne for December and €650 per tonne for January.
Despite these moves, resistance on the buying side remains, with bids typically reported at around €580-590 per tonne ex-works for December delivery HRC and with buyers estimates of achievable December delivery prices at around €580-600 per tonne ex-works.
Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Northern Europe was €591.46 per tonne on Monday, up by just €0.21 per tonne from €591.25 per tonne on Friday.
The index rose by €4.41 per tonne week on week and by €11.46 per tonne month on month.
Sources told Fastmarkets they expected to get a bit more clarity on price developments during the Blechexpo trade fair in Stuttgart, Germany, on October 21-24.
Fastmarkets’ corresponding daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Italy was calculated at €585.00 per tonne on Monday, up by €5.00 per tonne from €580.00 per tonne on Friday.
The Italian index was down by €2.38 per tonne week on week but up by €35 per tonne month on month.
In Italy, December delivery HRC was on offer from local and European suppliers at about €600-630 per tonne delivered, which corresponds to about €580-610 per tonne ex-works.
Buyers in Italy estimated the workable level to be at around €570-590 per tonne ex-works.
Several stakeholders in the Italian market told Fastmarkets that new offers “could be accepted shortly” due to the lack of alternatives.
“New imports are very risky. And local mills are well aware of that,” a domestic buyer in Italy said.
“And in the first quarter [of 2026] we will mainly have to rely on European supplies,” the buyer added.
The market for imported coil has been very quiet because most of overseas suppliers are offering HRC with delivery in the first quarter of 2026 and, therefore, prices for these tonnages will be subject to the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM).
Sources reported that a deal for Indonesian HRC to Italy had been concluded at around €465 per tonne CFR – although because the sale was to a trader and included the trader’s margin and CBAM-related costs, it would be equivalent to around €520 per tonne delivered in Italy.
