European hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices were broadly flat on Tuesday February 3, lagging behind mill offers amid insufficient demand. However, sentiment remained upbeat, supported by the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and tightening import supply, Fastmarkets heard.
HRC prices across Northern Europe continued to trail official mill offers, though the gap has been narrowing since early January. Domestic prices have been edging upward steadily but mainly fueled by import-restricting regulations — CBAM and new safeguards measures, rather than demand pick up.
“Mills are pushing to increase [flat steel] prices due to missing imports. But there is no improvement form demand side and there is no restocking,” a steel-service center (SSC) source in Germany said.
Another SSC source claimed that they purchased more HRC than usually in the fourth quarter of 2025 in order to build higher stocks ahead of CBAM rollout, and therefore, felt no urgent need to restock.
Buyers estimated achievable prices for HRC in Northern Europe at no higher than €650 ($769) per tonne ex-works on Tuesday.
Offers for April delivery from integrated mills in Germany, Sweden and the Benelux area were reported at €670-685 per tonne ex-works. March-delivery HRC was heard to be largely sold out, with only limited availability left at some suppliers.
Buyer sources suggested there was still some limited room for price rises but doubted higher levels of €700 per tonne delivered (€685-690 per tonne ex-works) could be achieved in the near term, considering lack of support from demand side.
“End users refuse to accept higher prices. In 2-3 weeks, producers will need to push for April sales, and we will see where prices settle,” a buyer in the Benelux area said.
As a result, Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Northern Europe was €651.07 per tonne on Tuesday, up by €0.24 per tonne from €650.83 per tonne on Monday February 2.
The index was up by €1.57 per tonne week on week and by €23.57 per tonne month on month
Fastmarkets’ corresponding daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Italy was calculated at €647.00 per tonne on Tuesday, down by €4.67 per tonne from €651.67 per tonne a day earlier.
But the index was up by €9.04 per tonne week on week and by €23.88 per tonne month on month.
Italian mills were looking to achieve €690-700 per tonne delivered (€675-685 per tonne ex-works for April-delivery coil), however, no trades were reported at such levels.
Supplier sources estimated workable levels at no lower than €650-660 per tonne ex-works, while one producer set the bar at €650 per tonne ex-works minimum.
Buyers’ estimation of achievable prices were heard at €630-650 per tonne ex-works on Tuesday.
Such a huge gap was due to lack of actual trading, sources said.
“SSCs are not in the market to restock yet, trading is limited,” a buyer in Italy said.
“There is no real restocking yet, wait-and-see attitude at big buyers,” a second buyer said.
Market sources indicated that interest in new import purchases remained subdued, largely due to uncertainty surrounding the EU’s CBAM framework, the transition toward the new trade system, and a lack of clarity over how much safeguard quota remains available.
That said, participants noted a notable development in how CBAM costs are being handled for the limited number of import transactions currently taking place. For these deals, buyers and sellers were increasingly relying on actual emissions data, provided by sellers, rather than default values when estimating CBAM-related charges.
One source familiar with the matter said that definitive emissions verification is not expected until early 2027, following the completion of 2026 emissions reporting.
Buyers largely maintained a preference for DDP-based import bookings to help offset CBAM costs, with a number of European trading houses offering these terms.
But trade sources pointed out that, even in DDP offers, CBAM costs were usually “paid up to a certain threshold.”
Sources reported offers of Indian-origin HRC around €600 per tonne DDP, with CBAM-related costs factored in. Offers for Turkish material into Italy were meanwhile heard at approximately €630–640 per tonne DDP, also inclusive of CBAM costs.
HRC from Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, was offered in Italy at €620 per tonne DDP, including CBAM costs.
