Starting January 1, CBAM became legally and financing binding, pushing imports costs up by roughly €35-600 ($41-700) per tonne, depending on the origin, Fastmarkets reported.
Sources indicated that, upon customs clearance of new imports in January 2026, customs agents request down payments to account for CBAM costs.
“Imports [have] become unmanageable. There is no shortage of coil in the market so far, but domestic mills are definitely a more reliable option,” a buyer in Germany said.
“The [European] mills’ bullishness is driven entirely by regulations impact on imports supply. Real demand remains low,” a second source said.
In Germany, one supplier reportedly still had February delivery HRC offers at €630 per tonne ex-works. Price ideas for March delivery were heard at a minimum of €650 per tonne ex-works, and at €700 per tonne ex-works for April.
Offers from other German suppliers were ranging between €650-670 per tonne ex-works for February-March delivery coil.
In the Benelux area, integrated mill increased offers for March delivery HRC to €650 per tonne ex-works, compared with around €630 per tonne ex-works for January and February.
Buyers in Germany and Benelux area estimated achievable prices at €630-635 per tonne ex-works on Thursday.
However, most sources said, they were expecting spot prices to rise “in a short period of time,” supported by CBAM and new trade regime rollout, both limiting imports.
“The target of €700 [per tonne ex-works] is still wishful thinking, but €650 [per tonne ex-works] can be achieved quite fast, all things considered,” a second buyer in Germany said.
As a result, Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Northern Europe was €634.25 per tonne on Thursday, up by €3.25 per tonne from €631.00 per tonne on Wednesday January 7.
The index was up by €6.75 per tonne week on week and by €12.00 per tonne month on month.
Fastmarkets’ corresponding daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Italy was calculated at €630.00 per tonne on Thursday, up by €6.00 per tonne from Wednesday.
The index was up by €6.88 per tonne week on week and by €18.75 per tonne month on month.
The Italian market was very quiet, with only sporadic trading reported, sector sources said.
Offers of February and March delivery HRC were heard around €630-650 per tonne ex-works, depending on supplier.
A deal was reported at €630 per tonne ex-works for a small tonnage of March delivery HRC.
Buyers estimated tradable prices at €620-640 per tonne ex-works on Thursday.
Several sources, however, argued, that prices below €630 per tonne ex-works “were no longer possible, considering situation with imports.”
Very few new import offers were reported on Thursday.
Sources said there was a clear two-tier import market, with offers on a CFR basis excluding CBAM costs and CBAM-accounted offers on a DDP basis.
So far, to manage unpredictable CBAM costs, European buyers were prioritizing import bookings on DDP basis — to at least partially accounted for CBAM costs of imported goods, Fastmarkets understands.
For HRC, an offer at €620 per tonne DDP was reported for Turkey-origin HRC.
As of Wednesday January 7, customs data were not updated yet on the European Commission website, but indicative tonnages of Turkish HRC awaiting custom clearance were 291,411 tonnes, while total allocation for January-March 2026 for the nation was 393,978 tonnes. Estimated CBAM costs for Turkish HRC were around €105 per tonne, provided default emissions values were used, Fastmarkets reported.
For India, for example, the situation was even more dramatic, with indicative tonnages of Indian HRC awaiting custom clearance amounting to 289,320 tonnes, exceeding the country’s 222,829-tonne allocation for the first quarter of 2026. Estimated CBAM costs for Indian HRC were around €264 per tonne, provided default emissions values were used.
“Unless actual emissions values are enabled soon, the lion’s share of imports will become unworkable,” a buyer in Italy said.
“Hundreds of installations are unlikely to be verified on time, despite acting in good faith,” EUROMETAL, the European Federation of Steel, Tube and Metal Distribution & Trade said in December. “This creates a structural mismatch between legal obligations and operational reality… As a result, companies will be forced to rely on CBAM default values, not due to non-compliance but because verification is unavailable.”
