European hot-rolled coil prices were steady to slightly weaker on Wednesday June 25 amid chronically weak demand and downbeat buyer expectations, sources told Fastmarkets on June 25.
In Northern Europe, activity was limited, with local producers offering coil with August and sometimes even July lead times, which indicates weak order books.
While offers came in at €580-600 per tonne ex-works, workable prices were indicated by buyers at lower levels – €560-580 per tonne ex-works.
Italian HRC was on offer to Germany at €580-600 per tonne delivered, Fastmarkets understands, with some suppliers were heard to be accepting even lower prices to fill the gaps in order books.
“[A European supplier] is selling [HRC] very aggressively and that has been [pushing prices down]. And in a [few weeks’ time] the ‘window’ for [HRC] imports with delivery in 2025 will close, and buyers will probably be cautious about booking tonnages with 2026 lead times because of [the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism], so domestic mills might start to increase prices,” a buyer in the Netherlands told Fastmarkets.
A transaction was reported in Germany at €545 per tonne ex-works and in the Benelux area, sources reported transactions for medium tonnages at €560-580 per tonne ex-works, depending on supplier.
Fastmarkets’ calculation of the daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Northern Europe was €573.75 per tonne on Wednesday, down by €1.96 per tonne from €575.71 per tonne on Tuesday June 24.
The Northern European index was down by €19.58 per tonne week on week and by €58.75 per tonne month on month.
Expectations remained downbeat, however, with quite different estimates of how low the price bottom will go.
One supplier source drew the line at €570 per tonne ex-works and another at €550 per tonne ex-works.
“If prices fall below €550 [per tonne ex-works] for HRC, we will see equipment stoppages,” a third mill source said.
While a fourth mill source said: “We are at the bottom already [given] the current raw materials and energy costs,” another mill source said.
Overall, market participants told Fastmarkets they expect prices to recover in the near term because already slow demand is likely to slow further in the July-August summer season.
Some buyer sources said the acute downtrend was also down to quite aggressive sales by some European suppliers in recent weeks.
Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Italy was calculated at €546.67 per tonne on Wednesday, down by €1.66 per tonne day on day.
The Italian index was down by €25.21 per tonne week on week and by €54.58 per tonne month on month.
In Italy, local suppliers were offering HRC with July-August lead times at €570-580 per tonne delivered, which nets back to €560-570 per tonne delivered.
But estimates of achievable prices were lower, at around €535–550 per tonne ex-works.
Sources also told Fastmarkets that for larger volumes (more than 1,500 tonnes), local suppliers could accept lower prices, but buyers are tending to hold back from trading.
“There are expectations of further a downtrend and [some] quite interesting import offers, so nobody’s in a rush to book [HRC],” a buyer in Italy said.
In the secondary market, 4 mm HR sheet was traded at €640-660 per tonne CPT, compared with €660-680 per tonne CPT in the first half of June.
Import HRC offers were stable to slightly weaker on Wednesday.
HRC offers from Indonesia with August shipment were heard at €470-480 per tonne ex-works.
HRC from Turkey was on offer at €525-530 per tonne CFR duty paid, but some sources indicated that, for large volumes – of 20,000 tonnes or higher – it was possible to get €500-510 per tonne duty paid.
From Vietnam and Thailand, HRC offers were reported at €510-515 per tonne CFR to Italy.
