The European hot-rolled coil (HRC) market stood at a crossroads on Tuesday October 14, with buyers digesting higher offers from steel mills – mills that are hoping to push for even bigger increases once Europe’s new trade measures are enacted – despite a distinct lack of real demand, sources told Fastmarkets.
On Monday, leading European steelmaker ArcelorMittal announced higher offer prices for December (€630 ($729) per tonne) and January (€650 per tonne), ex-works or delivered.
Other mills in Europe are expected to follow the move shortly, according to sources.
One integrated mill in Northern Europe set a price target of €640 per tonne ex-works for January delivery HRC.
But in Germany, mills have yet to announce any new offers, Fastmarkets understands..
“We need a few days to assess the situation,” a mill source in Germany said.
And buyers in Germany and the Benelux region estimated the tradable level for December delivery HRC at no higher than €580-600 per tonne ex-works.
“It won’t be possible to achieve much higher prices [for HRC] in December” a buyer in Germany told Fastmarkets. “There is no shortage of material – we all bought more than enough for the fourth quarter, both domestically and from imports. But for January, it’s a different story.
“Prices [for HRC] are likely to keep climbing in early 2026 amid a lack of new imports. But €650 [per tonne] seems too elevated at the moment,” the buyer added.
A second buyer sources said that other mills were being cautious.
“There are still December volumes to sell and there is no shortage of supply at the moment,” the second buyer said.
Fastmarkets’ calculation of the daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Northern Europe was €588.75 per tonne on October 14, up by €1.70 per tonne from €587.05 per tonne on October 13.
The index was up by €13.75 per tonne week on week and by €8.75 per tonne month on month.
But a fire last week at ArcelorMittal Fos-sur-Mer in southern France, which halted one blast furnace, might have more serious consequences for the market, sources said, with a company spokesperson unable to specify how long the furnace might remain idle nor provide estimates of potential production losses.
On Tuesday, however, sources told Fastmarkets the Fos-sur-mer furnace might remain out of action for at least a month, with some estimating downtime to of at least three months, which would halve the facility’s steel output over that period.
ArcelorMittal usual has two operational blast furnaces at Fos-sur-Mer, with a combined capacity of 5 million tonnes per year of pig iron. The site also produces HRC and cold-rolled coil.
Meanwhile, Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Italy was calculated at €587.38 per tonne on Tuesday, down by €9.25 per tonne from Monday.
The Italian index was up by €33.13 per tonne week on week and by €29.63 per tonne month on month.
Italy’s daily HRC index jumped sharply on Monday amid higher offers, but the decline on Tuesday is not a reflection of a downtrend, sources said, just of growing market uncertainty and the wide gap between mill offers and buyer price expectations.
After a weeks of being “in limbo” local suppliers started actively pushing for higher offers in Italy in response to the ArcelorMittal price hikes.
Offers for December delivery coil were reported at €590-615 per tonne ex-works in Italy, Fastmarkets understands, and one supplier still had some availability for November delivery HRC.
Buyer estimates of the tradable value were still lower than that, at around €570-580 per tonne ex-works, but no fresh deals were heard at the higher level.
And October-November delivery coil was traded at no more than €540-555 per tonne ex-works in Italy.
“Italian buyer are ready to close deals for new volumes at €570-580 per tonne ex-works, because €550 per tonne ex-works is not there anymore,” a buyer in Italy said. “Imports are out of question, at the moment,” the Italian buyer added.
Trading was still limited, however, because buyers have sufficient stock for the moment and are assessing the situation
“End users are not buying [HRC] for now and using their stock to survive,” a second Italian buyer said.
There were only a handful of import offers available on Tuesday, Fastmarkets understands.
One source said that offers from Thailand for first-quarter 2026 delivery HRC came in at €570 per tonne CFR Italy, indicating that Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) costs of €50 per tonne were included in the price. Even so, the offer was deemed unworkable by buyers.
No new offers were heard from Turkey on Tuesday, with one source indicating that €520-540 per tonne CFR was about right for HRC for December arrival. However, as of October 13, 402,732 tonnes of the quarterly quota for Turkish HRC for October-December 2025 was used (99.4%), with only 2,421 tonnes available until the end of the year.
“I booked some volumes from Turkey, but I won’t be able to custom clear everything duty-free – the quota is full,” a buyer in Spain said.
