European hot-rolled coil prices were broadly stable on Tuesday January 20, with limited import availability seen as a major driver behind recent gains. Meanwhile, ArcelorMittal surprised the market with new price increase, Fastmarkets heard.
European producers could still offer March delivery HRC, but availability was running tight, sources said.
Offers from integrated mills were reported around €650-670 ($755-778) per tonne ex-works, while transaction prices still didn’t exceed €630-640 per tonne ex-works in Germany and the Benelux area.
ArcelorMittal announced new offers for April delivery at €700 per tonne base delivered, but this remains “above tradeable levels” so far, buyers said.
A buyer source confirmed suppliers were aiming for even higher prices for second-quarter delivery, considering expectations of increasingly tight import steel supply due to both the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and the approaching implementation of new safeguards measures.
“New safeguard measures will likely be imposed after old system expires, so on July 1. That means that even if someone risks buying new imports under the CBAM regime, they will have to make sure material arrives to Europe before the end of the second quarter,” the buyer source said.
In October 2025, the European Commission proposed sweeping reform of its steel import safeguards, suggesting cuts in tariff-free quotas by about 47% and imposing a steep 50% ad valorem duty on any volumes beyond the new threshold.
While total quota volumes have been revealed, it’s not clear yet how those volumes will be distributed, and country-specific quota volumes were yet to be revealed.
“New imports are totally missing from the market, because there is too much uncertainty over its costs and availability,” a second buyer said. “Therefore, we see increased reliance on European mills.”
Source also pointed out that European suppliers were not in a hurry to increase production volumes to fill the gap left by imports.
“Increasing steel production would mean the need to buy more carbon credits (a Carbon EUA [European Union Allowance]), which are getting more and more expensive. It makes more sense to keep [the HRC] market tight,” a third buyer said.
Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index, domestic, exw Northern Europe was €640.75 per tonne on January 20, up by €0.12 per tonne from €640.63 per tonne on January 19.
The index was also up by €2.42 per tonne week on week and by €17 per tonne month on month.
Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Italy was calculated at €631.67 per tonne on Tuesday, stable day on day.
The index was also up by €2.40 per tonne week on week and by €17.92 per tonne month on month.
Prices of €650 per tonne delivered (around €635 per tonne ex-works) were said to be achieved in transactions for limited volumes.
Buyers estimated tradeable prices at €630-635 per tonne ex-works.
“There is no major restocking; steel-service centers keep quiet since they booked more volumes in the fourth quarter and now prefer to wait. At the same time, tubemakers are more active now and start negotiating with mills, partially accepting higher prices,” a local buyer said.
Italian suppliers could offer March-April delivery coil.
Tubemakers in Italy were traditionally more reliant on import coil, but sources said that new imports were very limited and very risky.
Sources reported offers from Turkey at €520 per tonne CFR including anti-dumping duty and at €490-495 per tonne CFR from India.
“For Indian material you have to add about €200 per tonne in CBAM costs, which makes price uncompetitive,” a buyer in Italy said.
A deal for Turkish coil was heard at €630-640 per tonne DDP, with CBAM costs included.
