European long steel round-up: slight improvement in apparent demand

Northwest European rebar prices moved down in the week to 15 October, driven by a slight improvement in apparent demand and a reported willingness from local rebar producers to secure advertised volumes at slight discounts.

McCloskey’s sources reported rebar price indications in Northwest Europe at similar offer ranges of EUR610-630/t delivered on week, but said that growing anxieties among buyers that incoming Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) costs, and the proposed overhaul of European steel trade defenses, could increase prices significantly and was pushing some buyers back into the market to secure future volumes at currently depressed price levels.

Specific offers were reported at EUR345/t base plus fixed extras of EUR255/t, for an effective ex-works price level of EUR600/t, then subject to additional delivery costs within Northwest Europe.

Input scrap prices generally declined in September before a very slight recovery in early October, giving producers some room to offload volumes at lower levels, or to compete against high volumes of low-cost imports brought cleared in early October to beat January’s CBAM liabilities.

Quotas for Turkish, Algerian, and Egyptian-origin rebar have been exhausted or substantially filled, though allocations within the residual quota to China’s 20% single-origin cap seem to have been reversed on week, with the majority of the quota now restored and a minimal volume awaiting allocation as of the latest update, 14 October.

Steel consumption is generally expected to improve in 2026, with the World Steel Association’s recent short range outlook for October forecasting 3.2% demand growth in Europe on the basis of infrastructural developments. However market participants remain pessimistic overall on the reality of manifesting demand improvements, foreseeing future difficulties with Europe’s labour and expertise capacities in quickly scaling these new or developing projects.