Some coil producers attending the Blechexpo event in Stuttgart this week tell Kallanish they are refraining from issuing quotations for the first quarter of next year. Many are adopting a wait-and-see approach as they monitor market developments, particularly the implementation timelines for CBAM and new EU safeguard measures, before setting future coil prices.
Suppliers in Europe are also considering ArcelorMittal’s one-month production halt at its Fos-sur-Mer steelworks in France, which will impact supply availability in the coming weeks. ArcelorMittal is currently quoting hot rolled coil at €630/tonne ($731) delivered for December delivery and €650/t delivered for January, with other European producers quoting similar values.
An Italian steel processor says buyers across the market “both large and small, have yet to return to active purchasing. Everyone is now assessing the situation and trying to reorganise their future procurement strategies by increasing the share of their purchases within Europe.” Another market participant notes that European and Italian coil prices remain stable compared with last week, as demand gradually improves along the value chain, including for downstream products such as sheet.
For now, there is little urgency in the market to buy, as large import volumes ordered during the summer continue to arrive at European ports. Both producers and service centres in Italy report renewed customer enquiries for quotations. According to sources, €570-580/t base delivered for HRC is no longer available. Several buyers confirm small transactions taking place in Italy at €600-620/t base delivered.
The market is currently in a transition phase, with customers focused on assessing future price trends and preparing to buy more in Europe. A seller confirms end-users have begun requesting quotations for first-quarter deliveries, while service centres are expected to resume purchasing within the next few weeks to cover year-end and early-2026 requirements.
“Next year, we may see a higher share of indexed contracts, as major buyers reduce their purchases from Asia and increase sourcing within Europe,” one buyer comments. According to market rumours, some large buyers are already bidding to secure substantial volumes of HRC for 2026.
Another market observer notes that European producers may need to increase capacity and restart some blast furnaces to meet rising domestic demand. Overall, the recent and future price increases are being viewed positively across the value chain, as service centres and re-rollers are also gradually managing to pass on price hikes to customers.
Several sources forecast HRC prices reaching around €650/t base delivered in January, and €750-760/t for hot-dipped galvanised and cold rolled coil. At these levels, the impact on downstream and manufacturing sectors remains manageable. However, further price escalation could have negative repercussions, eroding competitiveness within the European manufacturing industry.
Natalia Capra France
