European prices for steel hot-rolled coil were stable to slightly higher on Thursday July 24, despite a substantial rise in offer prices announced by some suppliers. Buyers remained unconvinced of the chances of a price rebound because of insufficient end-user demand, Fastmarkets heard.
On July 23, leading European steelmaker ArcelorMittal pushed its October-delivery HRC offers up by €30 per tonne to €590 ($627) per tonne delivered in Northern Europe.
Similar offers were heard from other integrated mills in the Benelux area, also for October-delivery coil.
But these new offers have not been traded yet and there was “a lot pf pushback from customers,” sources told Fastmarkets.
“There are still sufficient stocks around. Consumption is not growing,” a buyer source said.
Buyers’ ideas of tradable prices were still around €540-560 per tonne ex-works.
Some buyers even gave lower estimates of €520-550 per tonne ex-works, referring to the latest deals in the region for HRC with August-September lead times.
Mill sources claimed that €520 per tonne ex-works “could only be possible form a re-roller.”
As a result, Fastmarkets’ calculation of the daily steel hot-rolled coil index, domestic, exw Northern Europe, was €557.50 per tonne on July 24, up by €2.50 per tonne from €555.00 per tonne on July 23.
The Northern European index was up by €6.87 per tonne week on week but was down by €18.21 per tonne month on month.
Despite recent offer price rises, industry sources expected little change in spot trading in the coming weeks due to summer holidays and maintenance closures.
“Let’s wait for September – we are now going into a waiting mode,” a supplier source said.
The market situation in Italy was similar.
Local suppliers also pushed for higher offers, to around €540-550 per tonne ex-works for September -October delivery HRC, while buyers’ price ideas were no higher than €520-530 per tonne ex-works.
European mills were offering October-delivery HRC to Italy at €580 per tonne delivered.
One buyer source estimated the market even lower, at €510-530 per tonne ex-works. Mill sources, however, said that sales at the lower end of the prie range “were no longer possible.”
“The latest bookings for September [delivery] were closed around €520-530 [ex-works]. After buyers had booked the tonnages they needed to re-open in September, trading fell quiet again,” a mill source said. “We need to increase [HRC prices] to at least €540-550 [per tonne].”
Even though order books at local suppliers were “much better now,” market sources said, the viability of the post-summer uptrend was still in question.
Some supplier sources were counting on the introduction of the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) in 2026 to curb import flows and thereby act as support for a domestic price rebound in the fourth quarter. In addition, new steel trade measures to replace existing steel safeguard measures, expected to be presented by the European Commission later this year, were also seen as a supportive factor.
Buyers, for their part, remained cautious about the potential benefits of CBAM and new trade measures, with some expressing skepticism about any possible price increases due to the continuing weak demand and strong import competition, particularly in the HRC market.
“There are plenty of [HRC] tonnages already in the ports and more will be customs-cleared before the year’s end,” a buyer in Italy said. “Besides, some imports will still be competitive even with CBAM costs on top – just due to lower costs of production outside Europe.”
As a result, Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index, domestic, exw Italy, was calculated at €527.50 per tonne on Thursday, up by just €0.62 per tonne from €526.88 per tonne on Wednesday.
The index was also up by €3.12 per tonne week on week, but down by €20.83 per tonne month on month.
Import HRC offers to Europe have remained stable so far, but industry sources were not ruling out an uptrend in the overseas coil market as well, considering positive sentiment and a “futures rally” in the Asian market.
HRC offers from Asia to Italy were heard at €450-500 per tonne CFR and from Turkey at €480-500 per tonne CFR, including anti-dumping duty.
