European steel HRC prices firm; CBAM adds ‘gambling’ element to imports

European prices for steel hot-rolled coil were largely stable on Tuesday January 27, with buyers still digesting higher offers, and with the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) still the major driver of recent price gains in the domestic market, trade sources told Fastmarkets.

In Northern Europe, major integrated mills followed market leader ArcelorMittal and also announced higher offer prices for April-delivery coil.

Notably, in Germany offers were reported at €670-675 ($799-805) per tonne for April delivery, while a supplier in the Benelux area was hoping to get around €675-680 per tonne ex-works.

ArcelorMittal kept its offers at €700 per tonne delivered (€685-690 per tonne ex-works) for April volumes.

Major suppliers in the region were practically sold-out for March deliveries already, market sources said.

New offers have not yet been achieved in any deals, with buyers’ estimates of achievable prices at €640-660 per tonne ex-works.

“There is no major restocking yet, but mills are well booked and are absolutely in no rush,” a buyer in Germany said. “Buyers, however, will not have many options to choose from – importing is a total disaster because of CBAM.”

As a result, Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index, domestic, exw Northern Europe, was €649.50 per tonne on January 27, up by €3.25 per tonne from €646.25 per tonne on January 26.

The index was up by €8.75 per tonne week on week and by €22.00 per tonne month on month.

The corresponding daily steel hot-rolled coil index, domestic, exw Italy, was calculated at €637.96 per tonne on Tuesday, increasing only by €0.46 per tonne from €637.50 per tonne a day earlier.

The index was up by €6.29 per tonne week on week and by €14.84 per tonne month on month.

Italian producers were still able to offer March-delivery coil, according to several market sources.

Target offers were heard at €670-680 per tonne delivered (€655-665 per tonne ex-works).

Buyers estimated achievable prices at €630-640 per tonne ex-works, in line with the most recent transactions.

“Italian suppliers moved to increase offers on [January 23], following ArcelorMittal’s example, but these new prices have not yet been accepted by buyers,” a trade source in Italy said.

Industry sources agreed that the implementation of CBAM and its effects on new imports remained the major driver behind recent price increases in the European market.

“CBAM has turned the import business area into a casino – we are gambling with prices, we have no idea what the final costs of the imported coil will be in the end,” a second buyer in Italy said.

“Risks of new imports are unprecedented. We buy imported coil today, not knowing the exact price when it arrives in Europe,” a third buyer said.

Market sources reported offers from Turkey at €520-530 per tonne CFR including anti-dumping duty, and at €540 per tonne from Algeria and Saudi Arabia.

On a DDP basis, with CBAM costs partially accounted for, Turkish HRC was on offer to Italy around €630-640 per tonne, market sources said.

From Asia, HRC offers were reported at €610-620 per tonne DDP, but trade sources were cautious about CBAM costs in this case.

“Asian suppliers have high default values and long lead times. It’s a risky booking because CBAM costs eventually might exceed those [quoted] in the initial agreement,” another buyer said.

Another trade source said that there were some HRC offers from Asian mills available at prices “below €600 per tonne DDP,” but this was not confirmed by the market at the time of publication.

Author: Julia Bolotova

Fastmarkets Logo

fastmarkets.com