European prices for hot-rolled coil were broadly stable on Wednesday July 16, with many market sources believing that prices have hit “rock bottom,” Fastmarkets was told.
In Northern Europe, increasingly more market participants were telling Fastmarkets that domestic HRC prices were already at their lowest and saw further price drops as unlikely.
“Mills are still giving some discounts on big tonnages [of HRC], but prices have been stabilizing in the past 10 days or so, and the lowest bids are being rejected by most suppliers,” a German trader told Fastmarkets.
In Northern Europe, offers were reported to Fastmarkets at €560-570 ($650-661) per tonne delivered (€550-560 per tonne ex-works) in Germany and at €560-570 per tonne ex-works in the Benelux area – the same as on the previous day.
Most buyers’ estimates of tradable prices were around €540-550 per tonne ex-works.
A deal was reported for a large tonnage at €535 per tonne ex-works. A buyer source said that price “was possibly the lowest possible in the market” in Northern Europe.
Another market source pointed out,meanwhile, that such prices were not “widely available” in the region any more.
As a result, Fastmarkets’ calculation of the daily steel HRC index, domestic, exw Northern Europe, was €547.06 ($636.22) per tonne on July 16, down by just €0.44 per tonne from €547.50 per tonne on July 15.
The Northern European index was up by €2.27 per tonne week on week, but was down by €46.69 per tonne month on month.
Some market sources expressed cautious optimism regarding a rebound in HRC prices either later this year or in the first quarter of 2026.
“We will see the effects of CBAM [the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism] on the market in November or so. [Phasing-in this regulation] might entail greater reliance on European coil and, as a result, higher prices for first-quarter-delivery material,” a buyer in Germany said.
Another German buyer pointed out that it had already stopped import bookings for 2025 due to safeguard measures and CBAM-related risks.
“Lead times for many new imports are mostly in the fourth quarter already; so with all potential delays [and] customs clearing ,we might get the material only in the first quarter [of 2026] when CBAM is in effect,” a steel-service center in Germany said.
In Southern Europe, meanwhile, Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index, domestic, exw Italy, was calculated at €524.38 per tonne on July 16, up by just €0.42 per tonne from €523.96 per tonne on July 15.
The index was up by €4.38 per tonne week on week, but down by €56.45 per tonne month on month.
Buyer sources estimated tradable values at €520-525 per tonne ex-works on July 16.
Offers from local mills were reported at €540-550 per tonne ex-works, with lead times heard to be around six weeks.
In the secondary market, 4mm gauge HR sheet was traded at €630-650 per tonne CPT, largely stable week on week.
HRC offers from Indonesia to Northern Europe were heard around €460-470 per tonne CFR, and a deal was also heard from India to Northern Europe at €510 per tonne CFR.
A source also reported an offer from Indonesia to Southern Europe at €450-460 per tonne CFR, and an offer from Turkey at €480-500 per tonne CFR, including the anti-dumping duty.
Julia Bolotova, Davide Montagner
