In the first weeks of the year, the European steel market has exhibited a complex dynamic, oscillating between “new price levels” and the “actual transaction pace.” While spot prices remain cautious in key hubs such as Germany and Italy, producers have notably intensified their attempts to raise prices across both long products and flat steel segments.
ArcelorMittal’s recent price announcements have played a decisive role in shaping the flat products market. Although the levels of €700/ton CPT for April-delivered HRC, €820/ton CPT for April-delivered HDG, and €830/ton CPT for May-delivered CRC exceed current spot prices, they have established important reference points for the market. Concerns over “replacement cost” have become more pronounced among service centers and distributors, reinforcing expectations for price increases. While some short-term increase attempts may be limited by negotiation, it is clear that the overall market direction is trending upward. ArcelorMittal’s pricing signals have increased the potential for upward movement in market prices.
In Germany, rebar trades at around €580/ton EXW and between €600–615/ton CPT, while wire rod prices hover between €590–600/ton CPT. Thick plate prices remain in the €690–700/ton EXW range. Flat products such as hot-rolled coil (HRC) transact near €630/ton EXW, with CRC priced between €725–735/ton and HDG ranging from €730–770/ton. These price levels reflect producers’ intentions to improve margins, though demand remains cautious.
The situation in Italy is similar but somewhat more fragmented. Long products such as IPN/IPE are priced within the €720–740/ton EXW band, while wire rod trades at €590–615/ton CPT. Thick plate prices are between €700–720/ton EXW, with CRC and HDG at €730–750/ton and €750–770/ton EXW respectively. HRC prices hover around €625–630/ton EXW, which is seen as the market equilibrium point. Italy’s prices remain more flexible compared to Germany, reflecting fragile domestic demand and more evident import pressure.
In Southern Europe, there is a clearer upward trend in rebar prices. In Spain, prices stand at approximately €640–650/ton CPT and €600–620/ton EXW. Portugal’s market reference prices are around €605–620/ton EXW. Export-wise, Portuguese-origin rebar is priced near €630/ton, while Spanish-origin rebar trades at about €660/ton. Offers from Megasa indicate CFR prices to North Africa at around €680/ton, demonstrating producers’ efforts to raise price levels both domestically and in export markets.
Some producers have already announced targets to set HRC prices, including deliveries, in the €670–700/ton range for the second quarter, anticipating continued price increases. Meanwhile, Turkish and Asian-origin products under CBAM are priced at approximately €600–630/ton DDP in Italy.
The implementation of CBAM as of January 1, 2026, has initiated a structural shift in the European steel market. However, significant uncertainties persist regarding the recognition of third-country ETS systems and emissions verification processes. These challenges complicate cost and reporting calculations for importers. The requirement for CBAM registration numbers in customs procedures rapidly became a key agenda item at the beginning of the year and has since become widespread. The mandatory use of TARIC codes has caused operational disruptions within the sector. While geopolitical and macroeconomic fluctuations have somewhat overshadowed CBAM’s short-term impact, it is now clear that CBAM will fundamentally alter trade dynamics and cost structures in the medium and long term. This structural transformation appears inevitable in shaping the new era of the European steel industry.
