Despite the clarification of CBAM rules, demand across the European steel market remains subdued, leaving traditional supply–demand dynamics—rather than regulation—as the main driver of price movements.
In markets such as Germany and the Czech Republic, HRC prices are stuck in a narrow band of €605–615/t EXW. On the CRC and HDG side, rising energy costs continue to squeeze margins, and several mills remain hesitant to sell CRC altogether. In Germany, CRC is trading at €700–710/t, while HDG is hovering around €710–730/t.
Italy: HRC Eases Further as Demand Remains Weak
In Italy, hot-rolled coil prices have softened to €580–600/t EXW, with sluggish spot activity throughout December exerting additional downward pressure. Interest in green steel remains muted, with only limited-volume purchases observed. For CRC and HDG, producers are attempting to hold levels at €700–720/t, but weak domestic demand is challenging the sustainability of these prices. A similar trend persists in long products, where rebar is assessed at €540–570/t EXW and wire rod at €580–600/t CPT.
Northwest Europe: Market Stabilizes at €600–620/t as Mills Target €620–660/t for January
In Northwest Europe, the tight balance between supply and demand continues. HRC transactions largely remain concentrated around €600–620/t EXW. Producers and trading sources report that, with CBAM now fully clarified, January 2026 HRC offers are expected to gradually shift into the €620–660/t range. Several key factors underpin this expectation.
First, the formal implementation of CBAM has significantly increased the cost of imports, reducing the competitiveness of both Asian and non-EU suppliers and making EU-based production comparatively more attractive. At the same time, many European service centers, having deliberately run down inventories towards year-end, will be required to restock in January. This seasonal replenishment is expected to create upward pressure on domestic prices.
Higher energy and logistics costs relative to late-year levels are also lifting producers’ cost base, reinforcing their higher price targets. Meanwhile, the diminishing appeal of imports—particularly from countries facing heavy CBAM liabilities—continues to push buyers toward European mills, providing an additional layer of price support.
Although these factors collectively point toward a mild upward trend, market sentiment remains cautious. Whether levels above €650/t can be sustained will depend largely on the strength of demand recovery in early January. The extent to which buyers engage in aggressive restocking will ultimately determine the market’s real direction.
Market Direction to Be Set in January 2026
While CBAM rules have now been fully established, the market has yet to find a decisive direction. Prices remain mostly flat, with slight downward variations across certain regions. Demand is still weak, and buyers are reluctant to take on additional risk ahead of the January transition.
The anticipated turning point is expected in the first days of 2026. As CBAM begins to translate into real, on-the-ground cost structures, its impact on price levels and trade flows will become clearer. From that point onward, the direction of the European steel market will depend less on regulatory uncertainty and more on the interaction between demand, costs and the new import dynamics—an interplay that will only fully reveal itself once January gets underway.
