The European market for green steel remained quiet in the week to Thursday April 9, with spot activity close to nil; buyers focused on long-term offtake agreements to ensure future supply security, Fastmarkets heard on Thursday.
Market participants said that demand for long-term offtake agreements remains in place, particularly for green steel deliveries scheduled for 2028-2030 and later. They expect interest in lower-carbon steel to grow over time, supported by evolving regulatory frameworks.
A European buyer noted that although green steel output is set to increase in the next decade, the pace of expansion has been slower than initially anticipated.
New capacity additions across Europe are expected to come mainly from electric-arc furnaces (EAFs) and direct-reduced iron (DRI) facilities. But many producers, including Salzgitter and ArcelorMittal with SALCOS and Gijón respectively, have delayed or postponed integrated DRI projects to focus resources on EAF construction, Fastmarkets reported.
New EAF-based green steel output, using a mix of natural gas-based DRI, pig iron and scrap, is forecast to reach around 35 million tonnes in 2030, Fastmarkets estimates.
In the spot market, meanwhile, buyers’ readiness to pay premiums for reduced-emissions steel remains limited. Sources highlighted high premiums and ongoing uncertainty around definitions and standards for green steel in Europe as a key factor restraining wider adoption along the value chain.
Under Fastmarkets’ framework, European green steel refers to material produced with combined Scope 1, 2 and 3 emissions not exceeding 0.8 tonnes of CO2 per tonne of steel.
Buyer estimates suggest that achievable premiums for such material are typically in the range of €100-150 ($117-175) per tonne, although some deals may have been concluded at minimal or zero premium for strategic or marketing reasons. In contrast, mill sources indicated that premiums should be at least €150-170 per tonne.
During the assessment period, offers for qualifying green steel were reported at €200-300 per tonne above conventional material, although producers acknowledged that discounts could be negotiated for larger volumes.
No new spot sales were reported during the assessment week.
“We had two inquiries [for green steel] since the beginning of April, 100-150 tonnes, but no sales,” a supplier source said.
As a result, Fastmarkets’ weekly assessment for the green steel domestic, flat-rolled, differential to HRC index, exw Northern Europe was unchanged week on week at a premium of €100-150 per tonne on April 9, narrowing downward from €100-170 per tonne seven days earlier.
Meanwhile, Fastmarkets’ assessment of the flat steel reduced carbon emissions differential, exw Northern Europe was €0-50 per tonne on Thursday, stable week on week.
For steel produced in blast furnaces with reduced carbon emissions of 1.4-1.8 tonnes of CO2 per tonne of steel, offers for premiums were reported at €70-80 per tonne.
Estimates of achievable premiums came in at €0-50 per tonne.
Market participants also pointed to uneven demand from end-use projects, with activity remaining sporadic rather than consistent. While projects such as thyssenkrupp Steel’s recent supply of around 1,000 tonnes of CO2-reduced bluemint® steel — a mass-balanced product with a higher share of recycled content — for a water pipeline in Angola highlight the use of green steel in infrastructure, such cases remain limited in scale. Sources said that project-driven demand has yet to provide a steady or material uplift to overall consumption, reinforcing the view that uptake across the market remains gradual and fragmented.
