On 6 October, Dow Jones Energy hosted its second annual Steel & Green Steel networking event in Düsseldorf, Germany. Main themes running through the event were legislation, the green transition, and global trade, with a particular focus on the European steel market. In this article, we present a summary of the key topics discussed.
The turnaround year for European steel: Redefining pricing, supply chains and trade
The recovery of flat steel prices in Europe in 2026 has been mainly driven by the effects of the new tariff-rated quotas (TRQs) and the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). The regulations have restricted EU buyers’ access to imports, prompting them to switch to local steelmakers. This has granted domestic producers a larger market share, even as real demand has remained largely unchanged.
During the event, several distributors commented that imports of finished steel were becoming increasingly difficult and risky, with in-quota volumes largely taken up by big companies, with no material left for smaller ones. Some importers have switched to either steel-containing goods or semi-finished steel to substitute for missing volumes. These solutions, however, might be short-lived, since steel derivatives are already proposed to be added to the CBAM framework, and there have been discussions regarding a possible extension of quotas to these goods.
The EU is also likely to attempt to restrict semi-finished steel imports. This, however, would be challenged by both distributors and re-rollers. The majority of European heavy plate producers use imported slab as feedstock due to a lack of local steelmaking capacity in the segment and a largely non-existent domestic slab market. Several event participants drew comparisons with the attempted ban on Russian slab imports to replace the quotas in place under sanctions in 2025, which was met with resistance from re-rollers and plate consumers, and the quotas were extended until 2028.
The green steel market remains small in volume compared with the traditional steel segment. The size of the market is still hard to estimate, as deals represent a mix of sales from existing plants, off-take agreements with greenfield projects, and commitments from steelmakers based on new equipment that has not yet been installed. However, the number of buyers showing interest and making trial purchases has been gradually climbing. Premiums achieved in those trades were around €150-160/t, while spot deals for bigger lots have been settled with premiums of around €100/t.
Demand for low-CO2 steel is stronger in the Nordics, and it gradually decreases towards southern European markets. End consumers, notably those in the automotive and construction sectors, remain the largest buyers of green steel.
Making sense of new regulatory environment: CBAM, ETS, new trade measures
Dow Jones’ presentation focused on the increasingly prevalent traceability mechanisms featured across recent and upcoming policymaking relevant to Europe’s steel sector, including the EU’s steel overcapacity trade measures, and CBAM. It detailed how new tools to enhance Europe’s supply chain transparency, or ‘resilience’, are considered central to the European Commission’s pursuit of low-carbon reindustrialisation. These measures will likely intensify despite the compliance burden on market participants.
Subsequent discussions on the regulatory landscape covered issues such as the upcoming verification procedures for next year’s CBAM declarations. One large-scale consumer of in-scope steel CBAM goods that imports significant volumes from suppliers across Asia, expects fewer than 5% of its suppliers – perhaps 10 companies – to successfully verify their embedded emissions before the September deadline. The full use of actual emissions values, requiring physical on-site verification of all supplying producers across a product’s supply chain, is not expected for at least another 5 years, especially if CBAM is extended to complex downstream steel-containing goods, as indicated by EU lawmakers.
Market participants are still adapting to the EU’s recently intensified steel trade defences, such as tiered shared-access quotas for the EU’s Free Trade Agreement (FTA) and non-FTA partners – with various exclusions across product categories and origins – as well as quota blocking periods, customs drawbacks, pro-rata first-come-first-served duty dynamics, and, most recently from October, requirements to provide Mill Test Certificates (MTCs), or alternative evidence of an international steel’s origin of ‘melt and pour’ when clearing customs.
Generally, importers say they are able to navigate these new dynamics in isolation, but when combined, the uncertainties become a significant burden. An example discussed with a steel service centre executive was the additional risks presented by new administrative hurdles to clearing imported material into the new quota framework. For instance, any issues or delays in providing MTC ‘melt and pour’ evidence could result in missing the pro-rata division of initial out-of-quota volumes, triggering costly 50% duties on the entire lot.
Fragmentation of the global steel industry
One of the major trends for the steel industry over the past few years has been deglobalisation, as regional markets are increasingly shaped by local dynamics, leading to widening price differentials. This is particularly evident in the growing gap between US and other regional prices. Historically, the gap between US and European HRC prices ranged between $50–100/t; after Section 232 was introduced in 2018, it jumped to over $200/t and has averaged $328/t so far this year. CBAM and enhanced trade protection in the EU are starting to push European prices higher as well, a trend set to accelerate given the growing regulatory focus on the EU steel sector.
The main factor driving the divergence between regions is the rise in trade barriers. Based on data tracked in the monthly Global Trade Protection Measures Database, the number of steel trade protection cases has risen by over 20% since the database was launched in February 2025. Unsurprisingly, China is the primary target, accounting for almost a third of all trade cases. However, China has adapted to this environment by shifting from exports of flat steel, where trade actions are concentrated, to long and semi-finished steel products, allowing overall exports to continue rising.
Looking ahead, risk remains the overarching theme, driven by mounting trade barriers and the evolving impact of the conflict in the Middle East. Two main conflicting forces are at play here: rising costs pushing steel prices upward, counterbalanced by slowing growth momentum among key steel end-users.
Green steel: separating promise from probability
One of the central topics at the event was the ongoing global decarbonisation of the steel industry. In a best-case scenario, Europe alone is projected to add more new low-CO2 steel capacity than its entire current output from conventional blast furnace-basic-oxygen furnace (BF-BOF) production, effectively replacing this carbon-intensive route.
While the overarching trajectory is clear, the pace and chosen technologies vary considerably by region and depend heavily on individual corporate strategies, trade policies, state support and emerging innovations. This shifting landscape also means that some of the later phases of decarbonisation projects have not yet been finalised or fully configured, leaving the post-2030 outlook highly tentative.
However, a representative from a European greenfield project currently raising capital expressed optimism about the market for green steel, while noting that demand conditions remain fragmented across Europe.
Attendees also voiced concern over the lack of a standardised official taxonomy, which creates ambiguity around what genuinely qualifies as “green” steel, such as whether switching from BF-BOF to a direct-reduced iron (DRI)/scrap-electric-arc furnace (EAF) route alone meets the benchmark. One major European steel consumer speculated that China could emerge as the leading supplier of green steel despite CBAM regulations, driven by its rapid expansion of EAF-based production and decarbonisation technologies. For now, that prospect remains theoretical. Chinese producers predominantly offer standard BF-BOF steel, a trend clearly reflected in our Global Steel Product Carbon Intensity Database. However, trial sales of low-CO2 slab to Europe at price premiums of just around $20/t indicate that competition in the EU green steel market will only intensify.
Dow Jones Energy will continue to monitor this evolving market and track new emerging trends. Thank you to everyone who joined us in Düsseldorf—we look forward to seeing you at our next event.
Author: Benjamin Steven, Maria Tanatar, Marina Maliushkina, Sergey Babichenko
