Germany’s construction industry has revised down its forecast for revenue in 2026 from a real increase of 2.5% to 1%, Kallanish hears from industry federation Hauptverband der Deutschen Bauindustrie.
The federation is echoing the scepticism expressed by research institutes regarding developments in the current year. “In view of the sharp slowdown in the construction sector up to and including May, and rising construction costs, our original forecast is no longer tenable. Residential construction, in particular, will take a hit: we now expect only a slight real increase of 0.5%, whereas in January we were still forecasting +2%,” says managing director Tim-Oliver Müller.
“The fact that we have not slipped into negative territory is solely due to the June figures, which showed a significant rise in orders and a slight increase in turnover (see Kallanish 21 August 2026). But it remains to be seen whether this really represents an unexpected turnaround or is merely a one-off monthly flash in the pan.”
The association’s assessment is confirmed by a recent survey among its member companies, according to which only 30% of respondents expected their revenue to rise this year, whilst just as many anticipated a decline. Three quarters of participants reported that they cannot hand down rising costs for materials and energy.
The federation cites recent figures from the federal statistics office, which show higher order intake in June by 11.3% year-on-year and by 6% compared with May. This suggests an improvement in the trend will come in the new year, Bauindustrie notes.
ING Bank recently issued a German construction growth forecast for 2027 of 2%. Although the assumed growth rates are modest, they would mean an end to downturn and stagnation. While European construction output recorded an average annual growth of 1.75% over the past five years, Germany’s sector declined by more than 10% between 2020 and 2025, ING writes.
