German steel market participants reaffirmed their outlooks and expected an increase in prices, inventories and production levels in February, data from the latest Platts German Steel Sentiment Survey showed.
Price index
With expectations of a stronger safeguard mechanism from H2, along with the active Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, both sides of the market expected domestic prices to increase in February as imports became less desirable.
The overall index for the month stood at 76.88 points, up from 70.83 points in January. Participants continued to share bullish expectations since the start of Q4 2025.
Trader, stockholder and service center sentiment on price was measured at 68.75 points, while producer sentiment stood at 85 points – the highest both have been measured since the survey began.
Despite these expectations, sources continued to highlight that low end-user demand and relatively high stock levels in Europe would weigh on the extent of any price increases.
Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, last assessed domestic HRC in Northern Europe Jan. 30 at Eur640/mt ex-works Ruhr, up Eur20 month over month, and the highest level assessed since May 2025.
Platts last assessed domestic rebar in Northwest Europe Jan. 28 at Eur585/mt ex-works, up Eur5 across the same period.
| Month: | September 2025 | October 2025 | November 2025 | December 2025 | Janaury 2026 | February 2026 |
| Index: | 54.17 | 65.63 | 66.67 | 70.83 | 70.83 | 76.88 |
Production index
The overall index for production stood at 68.75 points, a large jump up from the 37.50 points measured in January.
Trader, stockholder, and service center sentiment increased over the month from around 33 points to 62.5 in February. Producer sentiment was recorded at 75 points, up from around 42 in the month prior.
After some time of producers undergoing seasonal maintenance combined with steady buying activity, both sides of the market expected production levels to finally ramp up as import regulations pushed buyers to purchase locally.
| Month: | September 2025 | October 2025 | November 2025 | December 2025 | January 2026 | February 2026 |
| Index: | 66.67 | 53.13 | 41.67 | 37.50 | 37.50 | 68.75 |
Inventory index
The index showed that market participants expected inventory levels to rise slightly in February as material ordered in Q4 2025 arrived, with some service centers and stockholders holding material in expectation of higher prices later in the year.
Overall, the index was measured at 53.75 points, up from just 25 in January. This was made up of 62.5 points from traders, service centers and stockholders, and 45 points from producers.
Even with expectations of higher inventories, sources noted that uncertainty surrounding pending regulation and costs was making some buyers hesitant over ordering material.
| Month: | September 2025 | October 2025 | November 2025 | December 2025 | January 2026 | February 2026 |
| Index: | 43.75 | 40.63 | 47.92 | 25 | 25 | 53.75 |
Demand picture
Surveyed participants agreed that demand for domestic materials was likely to improve in the coming year due to reduced imports.
According to EUROFER, imports had a share of 27% in relation to European apparent steel consumption in Q2 2025, a historically high level.
With a new safeguard system expected in H2 and CBAM cost uncertainty, the share imports make up in the European steel market was expected to fall, but this was yet to be seen.
Downstream goods
The majority of surveyed participants also added that more downstream products, like cold-rolled coils and hot-dipped galvanized steel, were likely to increase in price faster than HRC in 2026 because they are markets that traditionally rely on cheaper imported material.
