The global long steel market is overwhelmed by unprecedented protectionism and trade barriers, creating deep uncertainty on top of existing challenges, Murat Cebecioglu, chairman of the International Rebar Exporters and Producers Association (IREPAS) said at the association’s 92nd meeting held 27-29 April in Athens.
From the perspective of long steel producers, tariffs are severely disrupting business planning, Kallanish understands. Chinese exports, including billet, continue to pressure global prices due to their low cost. While Turkish mills are increasingly favour billet over scrap for cost efficiency. GCC countries have shifted from importers to exporters amid local overcapacity and uncertain domestic demand.
Raw material suppliers anticipate a challenging year ahead, with market activity expected to slow significantly in the second half of 2025.
Jens Björkman, chairman of the raw material suppliers committee, said that iron ore prices have hovered around $100/tonne cfr, up from $89/mt in September 2024, due to elevated output late last year and earlier this year. He noted that should China reduce its steel production while global iron ore supply increases, prices may decline.
Elsewhere, the new German government may help alleviate some market pressure, potentially boosting steel output.
Scrap demand is currently low in the EU, while proposed export restrictions could further strain the industry and complicate trade between scrap suppliers and steelmakers.
Looking further ahead, EU mills are expected to gradually transition from blast furnace to electric arc furnace technology over the next 5-10 years, resulting in uneven scrap demand. Although EU’s green transition appears to be postponed, with no viable shift expected until at least 2030.
Björkman also expressed confidence that Canada and Mexico are unlikely to impose taxes on steel exports to the US, as such restrictions would damage their own industries given their reliance on US trade.
Traders, for their part, see little hope for tariff relief from the US. The recent expansion of Section 232 tariffs – now covering countries previously exempted – offers limited advantages.
F.D. Baysal, chairman of the traders committee noted, only 18% of US steel imports came from countries paying Section 232 duties, while 82% came from exempted nations. Therefore, despite possible gains for countries such as Turkey and Egypt, the broader market remains constrained by economic uncertainty and weak demand.
In the EU, shrinking import quotas are tightening conditions further. Meanwhile, ASEAN exporters are making inroads into the EU market, supported by free trade agreements. Chinese export levels and resulting pressure, traders believe, will remain strong.
Elina Virchenko Turkey
