Despite the continued weakness of the overall European steel industry, Germany can point to some feats that are largely overlooked, says consultant Andreas Schneider. He finds steel industry representatives have been painting a gloomier picture than necessary.
In a five-year comparison, with the pre-Covid year of 2019, German steel production has declined by 8.5%. But some major customer industries – automotive, mechanical engineering, and structural construction – have dropped by two-digit percentages, Schneider notes. General construction is the one sector that hardy declined at all during that period.
In terms of apparent consumption – a measure used by worldsteel – Germany fared better last year than was assessed by the association. In October, worldsteel forecast a year-on-year drop by 7% in apparent demand for the year, but Schneider claims that things ultimately ended on a better note, meaning the drop might not have been more than 1%. He attributes his assumption to stabilising inventories and imports declining by more than expected.
For external trade in general, “the figures hold some truly surprising findings and shed a good light on German performance,” Schneider tells Kallanish. Although the December figures are not yet available, it is obvious that the result for 2024 will be the best since at least 2008, he points out.
In 2023 as well as in 2024, the German steel industry achieved a trade surplus, with a growing trend. While 2017 and 2018 saw deficits of 4 million tonnes, respectively, 2023 ended with a trade surplus of 1mt, and 2024 with more than 2mt.
Steelmakers are benefitting from duties on steel imports, which is a protection most steel-using industries do not enjoy for their products, Schneider points out. Apart from that, it is an advantage for German mills that 80% of their exports stay within the EU.
Christian Koehl Germany
