Pricing for domestically produced hot rolled coil in the US is finally starting to react to the recent mill hike announcements, Kallanish understands.
Spot prices for hot rolled coil have crept upward to a new range of $830-865/short ton, from $825-865/st a week ago. CRC is holding steady at $1,030-1,080/st.
On Monday, Nucor raised its published consumer spot price for HRC for a third consecutive week, by $5/st to a new base of $895/st (see Kallanish 11 November). Other North American producers announcing coil price hikes in recent weeks include NLMK USA, Dofasco and Stelco (see Kallanish passim), whilst major hot roll customer Atlas Tube issued an increase in concert. The announcements were not impactful immediately but are having some influence on the outlook.
“In general the prices have a chance to firm depending on the market,” a Great Lakes distributor comments.
The mills may not be pocketing much of their increases yet, but they have an eye towards the new year, according to other market participants.
“I am hearing from all my reps that the mills will keep pushing prices up so that they can collect big dividends in Q1 when everyone needs to restock,” reports an Ohio Valley distributor.
Nucor still promises lead times of 3-5 weeks. Cleveland-Cliffs, however, is closed for December tons, according to a notice posted in the customer-service section of its website.
A midwestern distributor says there were about a half-dozen mill outages in October and at least nine in the first half of November. At the same time, the mills were telling customers that order books are strengthening.
The Ohio Valley distributor points out that, for year-end tax purposes, some service centres do not wish to stock up before January. That is one reason why the slower production did not force prices upward even though it did temporarily trim availability and move some lead times out.
“The mill outages are mostly over now, and I don’t think it affected the market as much as people think it did,” the Ohio Valley distributor contends. “It did cause a lot of mills to be late with deliveries.”
Momentum is now building in the US coil market, and current order flow is already giving the producers confidence as they peer into the new year, according to a mill source.
“For sure, actual transactions have increased,” the mill source says. “EAFs are not making any money at the levels where prices were and they need to be higher. … Many end users are reporting good demand to start 2026.”
Dom Yanchunas USA
