Although, news about safeguards review sparked hopes for price recovery in longer run.
On Tuesday, the European Commission have started another review of existing steel safeguards measures, only a few months after the previous review came into force.
Market participants in Europe suggested that the review might involve a reduction in quarterly HRC quota allowances and the introduction of new individual quotas for certain origins.
Sources suggested that, in the mid-run, it might support a rebound in European prices.
“We are heading into [an] era of global trader wars and growing protectionism. Looks like reliance on domestic mills will only increase in 2025,” a buyer in Italy said.
“The first quarter of 2025 might be a bit early for flat steel prices rebound, but later in the year we will see better prices, in view of the reduced imports and reduced availability,” a buyer in the Benelux region said.
In Northern Europe, suppliers closed January order books, but deal prices have been lagging sometimes way behind target offer prices, sources told Fastmarkets.
Notably, in the middle of December, trading has picked up slightly on limited restocking. This was not a result of improved demand or an economic upturn, but rather due to expectations of longer lead times at some suppliers, sources said.
“Some suppliers [are] undertaking longer-than-usual holiday stoppages because of the poor market conditions,” a German buyer said.
Transactions for HRC with lead times in January-February were reported at €550-570 ($578-599) per tonne ex-works in Northern Europe, depending on the supplier and lead times.
This was in contracts with official offers voiced at €580-600 per tonne ex-works.
“The market sentiment is downbeat, especially in Germany, where many companies are shrinking down ops and announcing staff lay-offs,” a second source in Germany said. “On top of that, there was the vote of no confidence in ‘Bundestag’ on December 16, leaving Germany without [an] effective government. A new elected government can’t be in power until around April 2025, at best. Such long waiting time is poison for any investor who needs security for his planned projects,” they added.
Fastmarkets calculated its daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Northern Europe at €561.13 per tonne on Tuesday, down by €0.75 per tonne from €561.88 per tonne on Monday December 16.
The index was down by €0.30 per tonne week on week and by €1.37 per tonne month on month.
Several sources reported some closures of half-year contracts for the first half of 2025 with a discount of €80 per tonne versus the second half of 2024, sources told Fastmarkets.
Some contracts were heard done at €650-670 per tonne compared with €730-750 per tonne from the second half of 2024, sources told Fastmarkets.
“Mills can be satisfied with such results. Initially, automakers were asking for more substantial discount of €100-150 per tonne,” a second buyer said.
For the full-year contracts, one source reported a discount of €80-90 per tonne versus full year 20024 contracts.
“We achieved €80-90 per tonne discounts on full-year 2025 contracts,” an original equipment manufacturer in automotive industry told Fastmarkets.
In Southern Europe, Fastmarkets calculated its daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Italy at €560.00 per tonne on Tuesday, down by €1.25 per tonne from €561.25 per tonne a day earlier.
However, the Italian index was up by €1.00 per tonne week on week and by €4.00 per tonne month on month.
Italian mills have also closed January order books, with deals reported at €550-560 per tonne ex-works, depending on the supplier.
Local integrated mills were offering HRC for delivery in the first quarter of 2025 at €580-620 per tonne delivered, which would net back to €570-610 per tonne ex-works.
The Italian market was also slowing down for the holidays, with most participants taking leave from December 23 and returning after January 6.
The market for import coil was quiet in the recent months due to numerous trade restrictions in place, long lead times and uncompetitive prices.
Offers of imported coil were limited on Tuesday
Turkey was heard offering HRC to Italy at $590 per tonne CFR, including the anti-dumping duty.
South Korea-origin coil was on offer to Italy at €580 per tonne CFR, industry sources told Fastmarkets.
Earlier this week, a transaction for Ukrainian HRC to Italy was heard at €530 per tonne CFR.
Buyers estimated workable levels for imports at no higher than €520-540 per tonne CFR, sources told Fastmarkets.
