Trade cases are delivering results against record high Chinese steel exports but their effectiveness is being undermined by growing circumvention activity, the OECD Steel Committee concluded after its 99th session this week.
Although global steel demand is set to recover in 2026, except for China, meanwhile, the extent of the impact of the current conflict in the Middle East on global steel markets is highly uncertain.
In 2025, a total of 75 antidumping and countervailing duty investigations were initiated against China, and the stock of steel AD/CVD measures climbed higher.
However, significant transhipment activity has been identified between China and some Southeast Asian countries of steel subject to trade measures taken by OECD countries.
“Exporters are increasingly resorting to a widening range of circumvention techniques … including by slightly modifying the products, by investing in steel plants abroad to change the origin of the steel, and by exporting steel in the form of steel-intensive downstream products that are not subject to the trade measures,” the Committee notes in a statement seen by Kallanish.
Market-distorting subsidies also remain a challenge. The median Chinese firm received 15 times more subsidies relative to its asset size than a median firm elsewhere, compared to ten times more in previous years. Moreover, China’s steel subsidy rate has nearly doubled since 2019, the Committee continues.
“Capacity swap programmes to replace BF-BOF with EAF and other low-emission technologies are not delivering the expected net capacity reductions, as new low-emission capacity is being added without equivalent retirement of existing capacity,” it adds.
Excess capacity increased to 640 million tonnes in 2025, exceeding total OECD steel production by more than 200mt.
Meeting delegates welcomed Global Forum on Steel Excess Capacity efforts to develop the key elements of a comprehensive framework for joint action by June 2026 and additional steps to help combat and address the problems associated with global excess capacity. These include enhanced monitoring of non-market policies and practices and building capabilities to enhance import monitoring and address circumvention.
