Indian hot and cold rolled coil offers to Europe have fallen by $5-10/tonne on-week as market participants remain cautious following the leaked provisional CBAM benchmark values, and are awaiting further clarity, Kallanish learns from market participants.
Traders say the leak has added uncertainty that is tempering near-term buying. After India’s HRC quota was exhausted for the October-December period, some EU buyers are heard delaying January-March-quarter commitments.
As of Wednesday, Indian-origin HRC offers slipped by $5-10/t w-o-w to $560-565/t cfr Antwerp or Bilbao, or $500-505/t fob Mumbai, for S235 grade, end-December/early-January shipment.
South Korean offers to the EU were heard at around $626/t cfr Antwerp/Bilbao, while EU domestic mills were indicating at some €650/t ($752/t) base delivered for February/March, as per one EU buyer.
He notes “nobody is buying” in the current window, with CBAM uncertainty suppressing appetite. Selective import buying continues, but he sees upside risk to EU domestic prices in 2026 if supply tightens.
Kallanish analysis suggests Indian HRC exporters could face CBAM costs of around €222/t under the default approach or €72-170/t under the verified emissions route in 2026 (see Kallanish passim). This is a wide cost swing that is reshaping delivered competitiveness.
India’s HRC (category 1A) quota was confirmed exhausted as of 25 November, according to EU Taric data.
CRC offers fell by $5-15/t w-o-w to $710-715/t cfr Antwerp/Bilbao, or $650-655/t fob Mumbai, for DC01 grade.
EU domestic CRC levels are at around €760/t base delivered for February/March, with some importers estimating CBAM costs of €80-150/t, one source says.
EU Taric data show 75,349 tonnes of CRC fourth-quarter quota available out of 165,051t, and 7,716t awaiting allocation.
Indian plate offers declined $10-20/t to $680-690/t cfr Antwerp, or $620-630/t fob Mumbai. HDG slid $5-10/t to $770-780/t cfr Antwerp, or $710-720/t fob Mumbai for 1mm Z275/DX51 grade, with PPGI maintaining a $200/t premium.
Metal coated (category 4A) available quota was at 18,638t out of 54,280t, and 182t awaiting allocation. Metal coated (category 4B) was at 68,556t unutilised out of 99,930t, with 1,325t awaiting allocation. Organic coated (category 5) is fully exhausted.
In Vietnam, Indian-origin HRC offers decreased by $10-15/t to $485/t cfr Ho Chi Minh City, or $473/t fob Mumbai for 20% 2mm SAE1006 grade.
A Vietnamese source says competing-origin price movements have been modest, with the price decline reflecting weak downstream demand, opportunistic restocking and trade sensitivities that have reduced import flows.
Indian offers are now at close parity with Korea ($500-505/t cfr) and China ($460-510/t cfr), compressing pricing room.
In the GCC, Indian-origin HRC offers dipped slightly to $500/t cfr or $483/t fob Mumbai for S235JR, mid-December shipment. Freight remains at $15-20/t. The GCC remains a stable outlet for Indian mills, but softer regional activity and competitive Chinese pricing are influencing order flow.
Indian exporters thus face continued pressure in Asia amid weak demand and competitive alternatives, while contending with CBAM-driven delivered-cost adjustments into Europe in the near term.
Suhita Poddar India
