Indian hot rolled and cold rolled coil export prices to Europe are marginally up on-week, supported by stable Indian domestic prices but capped by EU quota exhaustion and regulatory uncertainty, sources tell Kallanish.
The $2-5/tonne w-o-w increase reflects limited cost-driven upside rather than any improvement in demand. Market participants remain reluctant to take on new risk as they seek clarity over the European Commission’s latest CBAM announcements, tight quota availability and slow post-holiday EU activity.
Indian HRC offers are up by $2-5/t w-o-w to $570-575/t cfr Antwerp, or $510-515/t fob Mumbai, for S235 grade, February/March shipment.
Comparatively, local EU HRC prices are at €620-650/t ($723-758) cfr Italy base ex-works.
“[India’s] HRC quota is almost full,” one market participant says. Sellers add that near-full utilisation of the HRC quota is now the main constraint, limiting their ability to place further volumes.
A trader says sentiment remains cautious as participants assess the implications of CBAM. The Commission’s proposed safeguard quota overhaul could meanwhile materially curb India’s coil exports to the EU from July 2026, reinforcing buyer hesitancy in the spot market.
According to TARIC data compiled by Eurometal, HRC category 1A imports from India are fully exhausted as of 12 January, effectively removing near-term availability.
CRC activity remains limited, with offers stable w-o-w at $710-715/t cfr Antwerp, or $655-660/t fob Mumbai. Ongoing anti-dumping investigations continue to dampen buying interest, despite the CRC quota still being 86% available, with 5,100 tonnes awaiting allocation.
In the coated segment, HDGI offers are up $10-15/t on-week to $780-795/t cfr Antwerp. PPGI continues to command a premium of around $200-220/t over HDG. Plate offers are heard at $690-695/t cfr Antwerp. Freight remains stable at $60/t.
Metal-coated category 4A quota was 97% available with 800t awaiting allocation, while 4B was 99% available with 200t awaiting allocation. The organic-coated quota stood at 23%, with 100t awaiting allocation as of 12 January.
To markets outside Europe, prices remain broadly rangebound. Market participants add that Indian mills are holding back more aggressive offers into Asia and the Middle East, while gauging what volumes Europe can absorb as trading resumes post-holidays.
In Vietnam, India-origin HRC offers are heard at $487-492/t cfr Ho Chi Minh City or $475-480/t fob Mumbai, end-February shipment.
In the GCC, India-origin HRC offers are heard at $505-506/t cfr GCC ports, or $488-489/t fob Mumbai, end-February shipment.
Last week, an India-UAE HRC deal was heard concluded at $490-495/t cfr Jebel Ali, or $473-478/t fob Mumbai, for around 15,000-16,000t, end-February shipment, for 2mm+ SAE 1006 grades (see separate article).
Market participants say this booking indicates a price floor rather than signalling a broader recovery, with the absence of low-priced Indian offers helping to stabilise export levels.
Sources expect Indian coil export prices to remain broadly rangebound in the near term, with limited upside amid weak overseas demand and quota constraints.
