The Italian coil market remains subdued following the summer holiday, with virtually no contracts concluded since the sector resumed activity this week, Kallanish reports.
During July, all hot rolled coil buyers in Italy and Spain purchased large volumes from Asia, particularly Indonesia, at €450-470/tonne cfr ($527-550/t). Southern European buyers also continued sourcing from Turkey and North African producers through late July and into August, at €460-515/t cfr duty paid.
Turkish mills reportedly sold large volumes to Italy and Spain over the summer, filling their order books. By late July and early August, they had raised prices, quoting from €500/t cfr and above.
Currently, with Turkey’s third-quarter EU HRC quota exhausted, service centres are largely refraining from imports, apart from selective purchases of Asian cold rolled coil at competitive prices.
European prices are expected to rise in the coming weeks, driven by the impact of CBAM and the safeguard replacement, the latter of which the European Commission could implement earlier than July 2026. “Prices will increase in Europe, but slowly and painfully,” a trader notes. Large volumes of material are currently arriving and will continue to arrive at ports, likely causing congestion in the near future.
European producers are likely to need to sell, but major buyers are not expected to purchase, having already sourced from the import market over the summer. As a result, they will largely be absent from the EU market in September.
Multiple service centres tell Kallanish they also do not plan to buy for at least the next three weeks. One source says he may refrain from purchasing until the end of October, while another expects only minimal purchases to fill small stock gaps. Overall, buyers anticipate that European producers will receive only low-volume orders throughout September and October.
Prices in Europe are still expected to rise. Two sources anticipate levels reaching around €600/t by early October. A major service centre, however, notes that much will depend on CBAM costs and Asian mills’ pricing. European producers should not push prices too high, he believes, as creating a large gap with import levels could dampen demand.
While the Italian market was even quieter than is typical in August, some transactions took place in northern Europe. “Europe has been Italianising for the past few years. August has become a holiday period across the continent, resulting in very few transactions everywhere,” a northern European trader comments.
In Italy, prices have only increased slightly compared with the beginning of August, by around €10/t, below producers’ target levels. Domestic HRC is at about €540/t delivered, and up to €570/t delivered in northern Europe, according to sources. Buyers in Italy are expected to return to the European market in October or November to secure volumes for year-end and 2026. One service centre warns that, given the high imports from Asia into southern Europe over the past month, quota-related issues may arise.
Natalia Capra France
