Italian coil prices are stable week-on-week, with subdued activity reported across the value chain, Kallanish notes.
Demand remains weak and limited to small tonnages. Service centres report similar conditions in the sheet segment, with high inventory levels slowly absorbed by the current real demand.
Both coil buyers and derivative consumers are adopting a cautious, wait-and-see approach amid negative sentiment linked to the US-Iran conflict, which is driving up logistics and energy costs.
Indexed HRC contracts continue to cover most service centres’ requirements, with spot purchases limited to small volumes to fill gaps in the stocks.
On the import side, transactions are limited to delivered duty paid (ddp), with traders assuming CBAM risk. However, traders are raising ddp offers to about €700/tonne ($810.73/t) while alternative sources are scarce. Turkish material is offered at around €620/t cif or slightly below, but buyers must pay duties and CBAM costs on top, as the quotas are exhausted.
As a result, import prices are currently uncompetitive compared to domestic, and buyers are largely staying away from imports.
One source notes that the conflict, combined with a potential revision of the ETS that could alter CBAM calculations, is once again reshaping the context. Another questions the viability of the upcoming safeguard measures, warning that in a market already plagued by sharp cost increases linked to the war, and stricter quotas could risk bringing activity to a standstill.
Several sources confirm that end-users are already changing their purchasing behaviour. Faced with rising costs, buyers are reducing volumes and focusing on short-term needs. “Given how rapidly the international situation has changed, planning has become extremely difficult. Implementing strict safeguard measures in this context would have a significant impact across the entire value chain,” one buyer says.
Downstream, hot-rolled sheet prices are also stabilising at €770–780/t ex-works, with service centres targeting €800/t. The brief uptick in demand seen following the conflict has now faded. Customers are relying on inventories purchased at lower price levels. They have limited visibility and increasing difficulty in passing on further price rises.
Market participants express growing concern that the current wave of sharp increases, combined with the loss of the Middle East market, could weigh on the downstream “Made in Italy” manufacturing sector, with potential repercussions upstream.
