Discussing the main themes of the three-day event, the panel pointed to fragile demand conditions in Europe, where subdued growth, excess capacity and shifting public spending priorities will continue to limit any meaningful recovery in steel consumption.
Rising costs – notably for energy, raw materials and logistics – were also cited as a structural challenge, with limited scope for suppliers to fully pass on these increases to customers, keeping margins under pressure.
Another common theme was the growing impact of trade policies and regulation, especially in Europe. The EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), together with tighter safeguard measures and quota systems, was widely seen as increasing uncertainty, complicating pricing and contract decisions, and reshaping trade flows. In parallel, geopolitical tensions, particularly in relation to the Middle East conflict, were highlighted as key sources of volatility, disrupting logistics, pushing up freight and energy costs, and undermining predictability across supply chains.
Producers committee: margins squeezed by rising costs, regulation, logistics shocks
According to Alex Gordienko, export director at European long steel producer CELSA Group and chairman of the IPEPAS producers committee, steelmakers face sustained margin pressures because sharply higher raw materials and energy costs are colliding with weak demand and limited pricing power.
Finished steel prices have failed to fully reflect higher input costs, leaving producers exposed, Gordienko said.
The volatile energy markets, driven largely by Middle East tensions, were cited as a major risk factor, with the producers committee warning that any prolonged escalation could significantly worsen market conditions.
Logistical disruptions were also becoming more acute, particularly in the Middle East, with port congestion, truck shortages and rising bunker fuel costs adding to delivery costs.
On trade policy, Gordienko highlighted the growing importance of CBAM, which is expected to create medium-term disruption rather than immediate price shifts.
Gordienko said that, by 2027, mills able to provide verified emissions data were likely to gain a competitive edge, because buyers will prioritize suppliers able to provide reliable carbon data.
He also flagged expectations that a stricter UK quota regime will add another layer of uncertainty for exporters.
Raw materials suppliers committee: tight scrap supplies, shifting global flows
Jens Björkman from Stena Metal International, chairman of the IREPAS raw material suppliers committee, focused on tightening supply conditions and changing global trade dynamics in the scrap and raw materials markets.
Björkman said there was no global scrap surplus and that material was being steadily consumed, while the rising electric-arc furnace (EAF) capacity and regulatory constraints were expected to further tighten availability, over time.
The committee highlighted China’s slowdown in steel output, as a key development supporting sentiment elsewhere, even as iron ore prices remained relatively firm due to supply side constraints.
India was identified as a standout growth market, supported by strong domestic sponge iron production, which has been reducing the country’s reliance on scrap imports.
Regionally, Europe’s safeguard measures and regulatory framework were seen as reinforcing protectionist dynamics, supporting regional scrap demand, although high energy costs and stagflation risks remain a concern.
In the US, stronger domestic steel production has increased internal scrap demand, reducing the attraction of exports, particularly for higher-quality grades.
The bellwether Turkish markets was highlighted as the major driver of global scrap demand and prices, supported by improved steel production and reduced semi-finished steel availability from Iran.
While Asia – especially China and India – is expected to gradually reshape trade flows through rising scrap generation and processing capacity, Björkman warned that the outlook remained uncertain, with tighter credit conditions, reduced trade finance and regulatory changes adding to the complexity.
Traders committee: weaker demand, protectionism disrupt trade flows
Wilhelm Alff, director of Duferco and chairman of the IREPAS traders committee, highlighted the impact of weakening demand and excess capacity, particularly in Europe.
For traders, CBAM remains a major operational risk and Alff said that many market participants have been resorting to default emissions values to avoid compliance risks, despite the higher cost exposure, while uncertainty around CBAM calculation and verification continues to complicate contracts.
At the same time, sharply reduced EU safeguard quotas and high out-of-quota duties have been further restricting access to the European market, forcing exporters to seek alternative destinations.
Alff underlined that there were also heavy complaints about the fact the European Commission is not taking any action on country specific quotas for those countries that have not delivered over the past 24 months.
“Bosnia and Moldova represent 250,000 tonnes of rebar per year,” he said, “and this is vanishing on top of the reduced quota.
“And it is even worse in wire rod, where Switzerland and Moldova represent 300,000 tonnes,” he added.
Geopolitical tensions, especially in the Middle East, were described as increasingly disruptive to trade, by tightening supply chains, pushing up logistics costs and slowing activity. Mills are having to become more reliant on short term and opportunistic sourcing, while port congestion and overland transportation costs are adding further friction.
Looking ahead, the traders committee warned that access to traditional export markets is becoming more difficult, as protectionism spreads globally. Africa was identified as a medium-term growth market, although rising local production and potential new trade barriers could limit any upside.
Author: Vlada Novokreshchenova
