Rebar mills in northwestern Europe are expected to lift their offers somewhat this month, but not by much, and their acceptance by the market will be mixed.
So far, new offers have not come in. Most German states saw extended holidays and some, as well as Austria, observed the Epiphany holiday on 6 January. Players therefore expect new offers to arrive next week at the earliest, with a €20/tonne ($23) hike seen at the most. “Benders with good orders in construction will pay, but others won’t bother filling their inventories,” an Austrian cut-and-bender manager believes.
“The market remains dull and crazy,” an eastern German manager tells Kallanish, referring to the willingness of many benders to snatch jobs from construction groups at what he calls dumping prices. His company is “well-engaged for the next half year, and it remains to be seen what’s after that”.
The introduction of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and other political circumstances means many players expect rising prices, but demand in the broader market does not really support that, observers say.
In December, mills could not lift their prices by as much as in previous years once they had filled their order books. “We expected some surge, but it did not happen,” the buyer of a German distributor group confirms. He sees the current base price at around €340/tonne ($396), now inching towards €350, partly because scrap prices went up some €10.
A buyer of an Austrian group tells of a deal done still at €330/t in December, “but I would not expect that [low price] now anymore”. Mills’ modest target could be €350/t, which plus the standard size extra of €265 would give €615/t delivered. However, “they might get €10 more for some weeks, and then might have to take €10 back,” says one player, describing the shakiness of the market.
Author: Christian Koehl
