The price target set by the market leading mill of €720/tonne ($829/t) delivered for hot-rolled coil appears to be largely accepted now, despite demand from steel users not significantly reviving from its ongoing lull.
“You won’t get any HRC from European integrated mills below €700/t ex-works anymore,” one observer tells Kallanish. He concedes that €690/t is possible at one re-roller mill, which could still be an option, mainly in Benelux.
Lower levels could be available from traders with inventories of Asian material bought earlier at prices around $500/t, with CBAM fees considered, on a ddp-basis to the buyer’s warehouse.
A Nordic source notes that there could be other existing stocks, at mills or distributors, where offers could still be under €720/t.
One mill source confirms that price level for continental Europe, and notes offers can be higher rather than lower, especially in Scandinavia. He cites a recent spot deal concluded with a large European distributor last week for May delivery with a price that is €200/t higher than in November 2025.
This gap is wide compared to Kallanish’s published price series, which on 1 November saw HRC at €600/t after three months of increases, a rise of €105/t.
In another comparison, one manager points out that currently the price is now at its highest in two years since March 2024, when it had come down from a brief peak to €720/t.
Further hikes have not been announced and could be difficult to assert if material is still available from stocks. Many sources point out that inventories are quite high downstream at warehouses and fabricators, with little appetite to go for more than light replenishment.
“Customers have enough in stock and they do not see their order books improving,” a Swiss buyer says. While a Dutch service centre manager adds that he has reason to believe that “stock levels remain relatively high compared to historic averages”.
