Upward sentiment in European domestic hot-rolled coil market, which has already been shaky, faltered somewhat on Monday November 3 as several import bookings came to light.
Earlier, market participants expected import activity to minimize at the end of 2025 and early 2026 due to the uncertainty caused by the introduction of Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) as the policy still lacks some important details as well as following the news about the drastic changes in import rules policy, which will replace current safeguard measures.
Local mills immediately reacted with higher offers once the European Commission announced proposal for sweeping reform of its steel import safeguards in early October.
Nevertheless, customers did not hurry to accept price rises offered by mills average sales prices in October being not far from September averages.
Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Northern Europe averaged €589.40 per tonne in October, up by €10.47 per tonne versus the average of €578.93 in September.
And Fastmarkets’ corresponding daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Italy reacted more sharply to the above factors , with October averaging €572.89 per tonne versus €549.41 per tonne in September.
This was because the Italian market has traditionally been more dependent on imports.
In October, producers both from Northern Europe and Italy have almost closed their order books for HRC scheduled for delivery in December and gradually opened order books for January delivery.
Nevertheless, both seller and buyer sources told Fastmarkets that trading was muted, with buyers preferring to clear their stocks by the end of the year. January delivery bookings are expected to start in a week or two.
Only minor tonnages scheduled for delivery in January were heard sold in the previous weeks, nevertheless, they were still far from mills targets.
In Northern Europe, some bookings came through at €610-620 per tonne ex-works versus mill’s targets of €620-650 per tonne ex-works.
But as more import booking were discussed to be done in the recent weeks, bullish sentiment started to dwindle.
At least three sources both on buyers’ and sellers’ side told Fastmarkets on Monday that it will be difficult for local mills to push massive sales of January-delivery coils in Northern Europe above €610 per tonne ex-works, with general assessments range varying within €590-610 per tonne ex-works.
Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Northern Europe was €601.25 per tonne on Monday, down slightly from €603.75 per tonne on October 31.
The index was down by €0.75 per tonne week on week, but up by €26.25 per tonne month on month.
In Italy, limited volumes for December delivery were said to still be available at €600 per tonne delivered, which would net back to €580–590 per tonne ex-works. Meanwhile, for January delivery, mills were targeting no less than €600 per tonne ex-works.
Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Italy was calculated at €595.00 per tonne on Monday, down by €2.50 per tonne from October 31.
The Italian index was up by €3.75 per tonne week and by €46.25 per tonne month on month.
In the import segment, several large fresh bookings came to light following a deal for 40,000 tonnes of Indonesian HRC booked in the second half of October, with the buyer said to be taking CBAM costs on themselves since the material will arrive in early 2026.
A new sale of Indonesian HRC was heard done around €480 per tonne CFR, slightly higher than preceding sales.
Additionally, around 100,000 tonnes of Indian coils were mulled to be sold within the range of $550-580 (€477-503) per tonne CFR, depending on the customer.
“The price level of imports, including all duties and CBAM, looks like €560-580 per tonne delivered as of now, and there is 99% chance that new lower quotas will not be applied at the beginning of 2026. Thus, there is no ground for local material to be priced above €600 per tonne ex-works,” an Italian producer told Fastmarkets.
