Sentiment in the stainless flat steel market remains cautious with the geopolitical situation weighing on downstream activity and the outlook mixed for European end-users, sources attending the Tube and Wire trade show in Düsseldorf tell Kallanish.
European stainless flats prices continue to rise sharply, with further increases being implemented across cold and hot rolled coil, sheet and tube. While demand has recovered compared to a difficult 2025, one source at the event expresses disappointment at persistently subdued end-user activity.
European mills are reported to be closing June order books and beginning to quote for July. For May delivery, mills have quoted and agreed CRC deals at €2,550-2,570/tonne ($3,005-3,029/t) delivered. They are offering and obtaining CRC at around €2,600-2,630/t delivered for June delivery while quoting at €2,700/t delivered for July.
Mill sources say they are concerned by cost pressure linked to the US-Iran conflict, and fast-rising scrap prices. Grade 304 scrap has reached €1,400/t delivered across most EU countries this month.
Additional pressure is emerging from Indonesia, where the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources has revised its HPM benchmark calculation for nickel ore with a recent ministerial decree. The new HPM formula, effective 15 April, is seen lifting the price of 1.5% nickel ore from $26.66/wet metric tonnes (wmt) to $48.42/wmt. This is seen impacting the entire supply chain.
One mill source at the trade show notes the Indonesian decree will primarily affect imported coil prices but adds that nickel values have risen by $1,000/t this week, which could impact finished steel prices.
The outlook among several sources for the coming months is cautious, with slower activity expected as geopolitical uncertainty and rising costs continue to weigh on market sentiment.
According to a mill source, however, prices will be able to sustain the upward trend. No European buyer, large or small, who spoke to Kallanish expects prices to decline in the medium term, with all sources reporting improved margins thanks to the recent increases.
Stainless CRC imports have fallen sharply in recent weeks, driven by CBAM charges, the upcoming safeguard changes and geopolitics. Two large processors, one in southern Europe and one in northern Europe, confirm that imports from Asia have effectively ceased.
Stocks in Italy and Poland remain high, although slightly lower than last month. Italian coil buyers confirm they are purchasing only to fill gaps in their stock rather than building inventories at current price levels.
Italian prices continue to lag behind the European market, though the gap is narrowing. CRC contracts for June delivery have reached €2,600/t delivered, with some variation depending on buyer.
Downstream, European sheet prices are also rising. While European mills are quoting sheet at €2,750-2,800/t, Italian levels remain at €2,700/t. Service centre sources argue that sheet prices need to rise by at least €100/t given CRC quotes of €2,700/t for July delivery.
