Slow patchy demand is keeping green steel premiums in Europe flat, with sources expecting no “breakthrough” in buying interest in the medium term, Fastmarkets heard on Thursday November 6.
Fastmarkets’ weekly assessment of the green steel domestic, flat-rolled, differential to the HRC index, ex-works Northern Europe was stable at €100-170 ($115-196) per tonne on Thursday, unchanged since September 11.
Under Fastmarkets’ methodology, European green flat steel is defined as material produced with Scope 1, 2 and 3 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions capped at a maximum of 0.8 tonnes of CO₂ per tonne of steel produced.
European mills were quoting premiums for green steel starting around €200 per tonne, with some suppliers targeting €210-300 per tonne. But in practice, tradable levels were lower, sources said.
“If you approach a mill for green steel, they may start by asking for at least a €200-per-tonne premium, but once actual volumes are discussed, suppliers tend to show more flexibility,” a Benelux-based buyer said.
Buyer sources said achievable premiums for green flat steel were set in the range of €100-150 per tonne. Mill representatives suggested a slightly higher range of €150-180 per tonne.
Sources pointed out that because transactions were largely project-based, prices varied widely, depending on the tonnage and region.
“The number of projects in Europe that actually require green steel – at least at this stage – is very limited. The pool of buyers is limited,” a source at a German steel service center told Fastmarkets.
“There are a few buyers who book green steel regularly, but volumes remain stable. For 2026 there is no intention to increase bookings,” a second source at a German steel service center said.
Most sources agreed that green steel will continue to occupy a niche segment of the market for the foreseeable future.
“Without public-sector projects driving demand, the market for green steel will stay limited,” a mill source said.
“[We] will see if [the European Commission’s] Steel and Metals Action Plan implementation can facilitate green steel adoption,” the mill source added.
The phasing in of the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) in 2026 was expected to give green steel demand “a boost” but not immediately so, sources told Fastmarkets.
“The ‘breakthrough’ year will be 2030 – when free carbon permits under [the Emissions Trading System (ETS)] will be halved. That would make a substantial difference,” a buyer in Northern Europe said.
At the same time, industry sources noted that ongoing discussions in Brussels about a potentially slower phase-out of free ETS allowances from 2028 onward could also influence the speed of green steel adoption. Some think a slower phase-out would protect Europe’s industry and prevent sudden cost increases. Others argue it would weaken the carbon price signals needed to push companies toward low-carbon investment.
“Policymakers must find the right balance: easing the phase-out could help producers for now, but it might also reduce the pressure on buyers to switch to green steel until carbon costs rise more sharply later in the decade,” a second mill source in Europe said.
