As rebar prices have corrected to realistic levels over the past two months, some distributors in Germany are seen jumping the gun with lowering their offers faster than the mills.
Distributors betting on falling prices is a familiar game in Germany in relatively normal cycles, but appears questionable amid the current geopolitical and economic turmoil. In June, base prices from domestic mills were still at around €900/tonne ($918), translating to €1,165/t delivered, but have since fallen by another €100-150.
According to one manager, some benders on the sell side started offering material, cut and bent, for prices at between €1,100/t and €1,200/t already in June. “It is like it used to be over the years,” one manager describes his impression to Kallanish. “They bank on prices falling, want to utilise their production, and outsell the material they bought at friendlier prices at the end of last year,” he believes.
Meanwhile, some German mills are nearing the €1,000/t threshold with their latest prices. The lowest German value is reported by a southwestern observer at “just above €1,000 delivered”, which points to a base price of €835/t, undercutting the €850/t cited even by many big buyers.
Christian Koehl Germany