EU domestic HRC prices have remained stable at high levels across the region over the past week, even as trading activity in both northern Europe and Italy continues to lag behind amid elevated stock levels and persistently slow demand.
Import offers have also remained relatively steady, with some suppliers attempting slight upward adjustments for cargoes on both CFR and DDP basis, yet actual trading has been close to non-existent due to ongoing CBAM-related uncertainties. Adding to the market’s hesitation, the European Commission has now approved the use of benchmarks and default emission values – key instruments for implementing CBAM – and the reaction among market participants has been sharply negative. For several origins, the newly adopted default values appear higher than those indicated in earlier leaked drafts, significantly increasing the projected cost of these imports.
Specifically, local mills in northern Europe have kept targeting €630-650/mt ex-works for new orders for January and February deliveries, the same as last week. Meanwhile, the tradable price levels for January delivery coils have been estimated at €610-630/mt ex-works, mainly for January delivery, up by €10/mt on the higher end of the range week on week.
Meanwhile, in Italy, mills have been targeting €620-630/mt for January delivery, up by €10/mt on the lower end of the range week on week, while the tradable price level for January delivery has been estimated at €600-620/mt ex-works, compared to €590-610/mt ex-works last week.
In the import segment, indicative offer prices for HRC have settled at €490-520/mt CFR, up by €5/mt on the lower end of the range, while HRC import offers including CBAM costs on DDP basis have been voiced at €595-610/mt levels, depending on the supplier, up by €15/mt on the lower end of the range week on week.
It is worth mentioning that import offers on CFR basis, excluding CBAM-related costs, have been notably scarce in the region this week, with most suppliers providing only indicative numbers. In particular, offers for ex-Indonesia HRC have settled at around $600/mt CFR, which translates to around €512/mt CFR, compared to €485-495/mt CFR last week. Besides, offers for ex-India HRC have been voiced at $575/mt CFR, which translates to around €491/mt CFR, the same as last week. However, according to sources, talk about an ex-India HRC deal signed for a big batch at an extremely discounted price of around $500-510/mt CFR, which translates to around €427-435/mt CFR Italy, has been circulating in the market this week, but this information has not been officially confirmed by the time of publication. Furthermore, ex-Turkey HRC offers have been voiced at around $610/mt CFR, or around €520/mt CFR, duty included.
In the meantime, most offers for imported HRC including CBAM costs have been voiced at €595-610/mt DDP southern Europe, with the lower end of the range corresponding to offers from Indonesia at €595-600/mt DDP. Offers from Turkey have been voiced at €600-620/mt DDP, while offers through traders from Thailand, Algeria and Japan have been estimated at €620/mt DDP Spain.
At the same time, it is worth mentioning that this week the European Commission has approved the use of benchmarks and default emission values – essential tools for rolling out the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). These measures establish the framework for the practical application of the CBAM regulation starting in January 2026. However, as of December 11, the benchmark and default values for the steel sector have still not been officially published in the EU’s Official Journal, while market participants have only shared draft annexes and technical implementing acts that outline the proposed benchmarks and default emissions values.
Using these draft figures, market insiders have already calculated the approximate CBAM costs, and the results have once again triggered a negative reaction among traders and, in particular, foreign suppliers. According to these preliminary estimates, the CBAM charge for HRC originating from Indonesia would exceed €500/mt, while material from India would face a cost of around €230/mt. For Vietnam and Turkey, the calculated CBAM burden is slightly above €80/mt.
“These calculations are based on the default values, which are extremely high. Indian mills are expected to complete third-party audits in line with EU requirements and submit their actual emissions data in about a month or so,” an Indian trader told SteelOrbis.
